By FAY SIMMONS

Tribune Business Reporter

jsimmons@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamas is “not sitting on our hands” over the 1.3 percent first-half decline in air arrivals, the deputy prime minister is asserting, as he voiced “cautious optimism” for the 2025 fourth quarter. 

Chester Cooper, also minister of tourism, investments and aviation, said forecasts the final months of 2025 and heading into early 2026 remain positive despite September being predictably soft as it remains the slowest period in the annual tourism calendar.

Acknowledging that September, which coincides with ‘back to school’ in the US and peak hurricane season, will follow the usual trend of reduced arrivals, Mr Cooper said: “We have clarity on what the fourth quarter looks like, and we are cautiously optimistic about it.

“The fourth quarter we anticipate will be reasonably strong. We expect that September is going to be reasonably soft, as we usually have but, you know, we’re positive about the fourth quarter and early 2026.”

Mr Cooper said The Bahamas is outperforming previous years in cruise tourism, but conceded that it has seen a dip in air arrivals largely due to a decline in travel by American visitors - traditionally the country’s largest tourism market.

He added that Ministry of Tourism officials are actively working to offset the US visitor decline by expanding airlift from Canada and deploying other market-specific strategies.

“The reality about tourism is that it’s cyclical. We have had a phenomenal 2023 and 2024, and this year we are beating those records, albeit by a significant margin, on cruise, falling behind slightly as it relates to air arrivals, but we are deploying strategies. We’re not sitting on our hands,” said Mr Cooper.

“The confidence levels for travel by Americans, our key source market, at the moment are shaky due to geopolitical issues, and we are pivoting - as we’re required to do - and we are extending airlift out of Canada. We used to have 26 flights. We now have 36 flights, and we are doing missions to reacquaint our stakeholders with what we’re doing in the islands of The Bahamas.”

The Central Bank’s report on July’s economic developments revealed higher-spending stopover tourism arrivals declined by 1.3 percent during the 2025 first-half as The Bahamas’ most important industry generated “healthy but moderated activity”.

The regulator blamed the modest slowdown in land-based visitors on “constrained capacity”, meaning a lack of hotel and other room inventory able to accommodate visitor demand for the destination.

“Preliminary indications are that the domestic economy’s tempered pace of growth persisted during July, converging closer to its expected medium-term potential. Tourism registered healthy but moderated activity as the high value-added stopover segment remained capacity constrained, although the cruise sector continued to record robust growth,” the Central Bank said.

“Monthly data suggests that, during the review period, tourism sector earnings growth tapered, reflective of the constrained activity in the stopover segment. However, the cruise category remained buoyant and continued to attract significant foreign investments in the development of onshore private destinations.

“Official data from the Ministry of Tourism indicated that total arrivals grew by 10.7 percent to one million visitors in June 2025 relative to the comparative period in 2024. Underlying this development, sea arrivals rose by 13.8 percent to 0.9m. However, air arrivals declined by 3.1 percent to 200,000.” The June monthly decline was three times’ that for the six-month period.

“An analysis by major ports of entry showed that total visitors to New Providence increased by 18.7 percent to 500,000 compared to the same period last year,” the Central Bank said of June. “Specifically, sea passengers advanced by 28 percent to 400,000, outstripping the 3.3 percent fall-off in air passengers to 100,000.

“Further, overall visitors to the Family Islands rose by 7.2 percent to 500,000 relative to the previous year. This included an 8.4 percent rise in sea traffic to 400,000, which overshadowed the 6 percent reduction in air arrivals to 35,815. Conversely, arrivals to Grand Bahama contracted by 31.1 percent to 30,257, explained by a 37.8 percent decline in sea traffic to 24,441, eclisping the 25.7 percent growth in air arrivals to 5,816.”