By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamas Chamber of Commerce's labour chief yesterday branded the 52 percent increase in unemployed workers during the seven months to January 2025 as "pretty scary".

Peter Goudie, who represents the private sector on the National Tripartite Council that handles all labour matters, told Tribune Business the latest workforce data unveiled by the Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI) highlighted that "we have a very difficult situation in our country" and the urgent need to fix the education system "from the bottom up".

Apart from an 8,885 increase in the number of unemployed persons between the 2024 third quarter and January 2025, the BNSI survey revealed that 65,225 persons - representing 30.4 percent of the 214,725 workers currently holding jobs - were deemed to be under-employed, "working part-time while wanting additional hours".

The data also disclosed that 28 percent of men employed in the Bahamian workforce in January 2025, and 17 percent of women, had "no qualification" - again exposing issues related to productivity, competitiveness and company output, especially given the world's shift to the 'digital' and knowledge-based economy of the 21st century.

Youth unemployment, which accounts for persons aged between 15 and 24 years-old who are looking but unable to find work, stood at 20.9 percent and was almost double the national jobless rate. This meant that more than in five Bahamians, some 6,960, were looking for work but unable to find it. And close to one in three of all Bahamian workers are deemed to be under-employed.

With the number of jobless workers, meaning Bahamians looking for work but unable to find it, having risen from 17,040 in the 2024 third quarter (the three months to end-September) to 25,925 in the 2025 first quarter, Mr Goudie told this newspaper: "It just concerns me that the numbers are a little high, the unemployment numbers.

"And what also concerns me is the number of males not getting through higher education. You know my feelings about social progression, which I don't agree with. I'm still concerned about that and it's not going to change. We still have so many work permits. That's the problem. On the other hand, the Government gets a large amount of income from work permits, but that doesn't increase our employment."

The Institute's report showed that the official unemployment rate for The Bahamas rose from 7.2 percent in the 2024 third quarter to 9 percent during that year's final three months. It rose further to double digits in the 2025 first quarter, hitting 10.8 percent.

The Labour Force Survey did not provide an explanation for the increase, which seemed to buck conventional economic wisdom and traditional trends. Unemployment is often at its peak during the calendar year's third quarter due to the annual influx of high school leavers into the workforce, combined with the typical slowdown in tourism during September and October.

However, hiring and employment typically picks up again to coincide with the winter tourism season that hits its peak during the year's first quarter and often spills over into the second. However, according to the Institute's survey data, The Bahamas' unemployment rate and actual number of jobless workers actually increased despite the seasonal winter tourism pick-up. 

Pia Glover-Rolle, the minister of labour and the public service, did not respond to Tribune Business messages seeking comment before press time. However, the Opposition seized on the data to assert that The Bahamas had lost 5,500 jobs between the 2024 third quarter and 2025 first quarter due to the employed labour force shrinking from 220,975 to 214,725 over that period (see other article on Page 1B).

Under-employment, meanwhile, is becoming just as serious a problem as unemployment. "The total number of employed persons was 214,725, with males comprising more than half (108,935 or 50.7 percent) of the employed labour force. Of those employed, 65,225 individuals were under-employed, that is working part-time while wanting additional hours," the Institute said.

"You've got to wonder how many of those people have a good education," Mr Goudie said of the under-employment figures. "There's no answer to that in the survey. You have to believe that a lot of those people are not working full-time because they cannot get full-time jobs. They are not qualified." The shift work, and temporary nature, of some hospitality industry jobs are likely to be another factor.

"I've gone on record the other day as saying we need to get people educated," Mr Goudie added. "What does that [labour force survey] tell you? It tells you everything I'm afraid. We have a very difficult situation in our country.

"It's very concerning because we have whole bunch of people not employed. That's not good. It's not a good situation, and that's a concern for all of us; every one of us. The biggest issue to me is the number of unemployed persons, especially males, and it's difficult. All those numbers speak for themselves."

The Chamber's labour division head said the Institute's findings are why the private sector, the Government and trade unions are "working so hard on all that; we're trying to fix it" with initiatives such as the National Apprenticeship Programme, which he acknowledged is "rolling out slowly". 

The just-formed National Productivity Task Force is set to meet for the first time tomorrow, and Mr Goudie said this will work alongside the apprenticeship initiative and the Bahamas Polytechnic Accreditation Training Hub or BPATH. "You don't usually see us focus on customer care, and that's going to be part of the Productivity Council," he added. "How do we take better care of customers?

"We've got to get more kids better educated so that we can improve the workforce. We need to fix the education system from the bottom up." The initiatives identified by Mr Goudie, while laudable, do not fox the underlying problem regarding the high school public education system and the fact it fails to turn out sufficient numbers of graduates with even the basic skills sought by Bahamian employers.

Businesses that are unable to recruit the workers and skills they require are unable to operate with the efficiency and production they need. This causes them, as well as the overall Bahamian economy, to become less competitive and impacts wage-earning ability and living standards for the workers themselves.

"The total number of unemployed individuals in January 2025 was 25,925, with females making up 51.3 per cent. Among the unemployed, 6,960 were youth aged 15 to 24 years, almost evenly distributed by sex," the Institute's survey said.

"The unemployment rate for January 2025 was 10.8 per cent. The female unemployment rate was higher at 11.2 per cent, while the unemployment rate for males, 10.4 per cent. The youth unemployment rate was 20.9 per cent, with the unemployment rate for young adult females at 21.7 per cent and for young adult males it was 20.3 per cent.

"Nationally, women aged 20 to 44 and 45 to 54 were more likely to be unemployed than their male counterparts. By contrast, men aged 25-44 were slightly more likely to be unemployed when compared with women within their same age cohort."

Some 106,480 persons were found to be "outside the labour force", likely meaning persons who were between jobs in January 2025, stay-at-home parents and others. Of this number, some 3,720 or 3.5 percent were identified as "discouraged workers", meaning they are part of the potential labour force but not actively looking for a job.

That 3,720 said they had given up because they were "tired of looking for jobs" or there were "no jobs in the area'. Others said they either lacked experience or there were no available job openings to match their skills, while some alleged they were viewed as too young or old by employers.

"There were 25,520 young people (aged 15 to 24 years) outside the labour force, accounting for 23.9 per cent of this group. Among these young adults, 11,870 were males and 13,650 were females," the Institute's survey found.

"The total labour force in January was 240,650 individuals: 121,565 males (50.5 percent) and 119, 085 females (49.5 percent). The overall labour force participation rate was 76 percent. Males had a higher participation rate of 80.4 per cent compared to 72 per cent for females."