Bad weather could be on the way with the possible formation of a tropical depression in coming days.

A tropical wave over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday, and across the Dominican Republic beginning late Wednesday.  

The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward.  Environmental conditions  are forecast to be more conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. 

Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will likely begin Thursday night 9-25/Friday morning 9-26 across Mayguana, Little Inagua and Great Inagua, then move northwest affecting Acklins Island Crooked Island Long Island Rum Cay, San Salvador, Cat Island, Exumas, and Eleuthera Friday afternoon/evening.  

By Saturday morning/afternoon the disturbance is expected to make a northerly turn, with minimal effects to Andros, New Providence, Grand Bahama, Great Abaco, the Bimini Islands and Berry Islands. 

Showers and thunderstorm activity will likely be diminishing across all of the Bahamas Saturday evening.

Effects from wind  are not certain due to the lower confidence in storm intensity.

Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall and associated thunderstorms will bring the potential for 1.0-2.5+ inches of rain accumulation Thursday through Saturday (most towards Great and Little Inagua and Mayaguana and lesser amounts northwest) and less than 0.5” across Andros, New Providence, Grand Bahama, Great Abaco, the Bimini Islands, and Berry Islands.