By Simon

With likely less than a year before a general election, is the political momentum shifting? While it is not clear how much ground the Free National Movement (FNM) may be gaining, it appears that the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) has lost momentum.

It is natural for incumbents to lose support for a variety of reasons. These include the failure to fulfill key promises, proverbial unforced errors, and the headwinds created by economic and other challenges. These add fuel to the now perennial penchant of Bahamian voters to throw out governments.

How much momentum has the government lost? Time will tell. Momentum must be constantly sustained. But it will not be sustained mostly by public relations.

Indeed, too much hype and glitzy announcements can turn off voters, especially when expectations go unmet. The daily reality of the lives of voters is what will help defeat or re-elect a government!

The manner in which the PLP celebrated and promoted its fourth anniversary of election was underwhelming and lacklustre. Even a number of party supporters are groaning that the party appears to currently lack a rational or argument for re-election.

The economic and financial headwinds the government faces are tremendous. The significant uptick in unemployment does not augur well. A good number of hotel employees are working parttime. Many Bahamians are suffering financially.

The hundreds of millions the government owes Bahamian vendors is money not circulating in the economy, a further drag on growth. Despite tremendous financial strain the government says it will give a pay rise to certain public sector employees. Where will the money come from?

Shadow Minister of Finance Kwasi Thompson responded to the rise in unemployment in The Nassau Guardian.

“The Bahamian economy has been put into reverse. According to the BNSI report, the unemployment rate grew by some 50 percent in less than a year, shifting from 7.2 percent up to 10.8 percent.”

“Stopover tourism, the country’s primary economic engine, is flat and trending in the wrong direction...

“What the PLP has given the country instead is high inflation, high taxes, high electricity bills, a stalling economy, endless scandals, multi-million-dollar no-bid contracts to the few, and now, according to the BNSI, 5,500 lost jobs.

“Their own announced projects have been stuck with unending delays, missteps, and scandals. The PLP is out of excuses, and soon the Bahamian people will show them that they are out of time.”

This is the FNM’s narrative. It is strong and comprehensive. It is part of the message the opposition is taking to voters in their homes and through social media.

What is the government’s messaging? Ominously, the end of The Guardian story reported: “The government did not issue a response to the survey.” While the FNM is on the offence, the PLP appears defensive and without a message.

If the PLP does not provide a reasonable counternarrative, the FNM will continue to jab, landing effective punches on the PLP. The anaemic fourth anniversary messaging suggests that the party has not crafted a compelling election message thus far.

In the past few weeks, the PLP has responded to FNM attacks with mostly ad hominem, defensive counterattacks on those issuing various messages. This is not a winning strategy. The PLP will need to offer counter messaging that is more effective, proposing solutions to the problems Bahamians are facing.

The headwinds the government faces includes more than economic woes. There is the consistent impression by voters that crime remains out of control and that the government is not taking concerns about immigration seriously. Many perceive that the government has been opaque on a range of issues.

Outrageous electricity bills are a nightmare for consumers and business, and for a government months away from an election. The proposed energy reform by the PLP was welcomed by the vast majority of Bahamians, sickened by unreliable electricity supply and high bills.

What could have been a significant accomplishment and major plank in the PLP’s argument for re-election, is now an albatross for the government.

Despite the frequent jaundiced editorialising of some journals, which often appear schizophrenic, inconsistent, and less than balanced, the FNM has improved its communications and political efforts amidst the PLP’s governing and electoral challenges.

Further, given the political agendas and realities of some in the media, the FNM has rightly turned decisively to social media to deploy its messages in a consistent and creative manner. During the week of the PLP’s election anniversary, the FNM proved very effective in its messaging on various platforms.

Many of its candidates are on the ground building momentum for the party, including in constituencies deeply dissatisfied by their members of parliament, the high cost of living, and the delivery of government services.

Still, FNMs realise they have significant challenges. Nevertheless, there is a growing feeling by many in the party that they are gaining momentum and can win. On the ground, they are finding that PLP voters are less voluble and less confident.

Yet, Prime Minister Philip Davis and the PLP have many political assets, including the power of incumbency and a large war chest. Though neither is determinative, as we have seen in past elections, they may prove critical to an election win.

Turnout and mobilisation are always essential. This in part helped Prime Minister Andrew Holness and his Jamaica Labour Party to win a narrow re-election victory, despite low voter turnout at approximately 39.5 percent according to the Electoral Office of Jamaica.

Mr Holness had certain advantages. He had dramatically reduced crime. He built many homes. He promised another significant increase in the minimum wage and a significant reduction in income tax. Many voters thought that he governed well enough and that his new promises were credible.

Does the PLP enjoy this credibility? Has it fulfilled enough of its major promises to get enough voters to return it to office? Or are sufficient voters dissatisfied enough to turn to FNM leader Michael Pintard and the FNM?

Mr Pintard continues to have a number of challenges. Can he significantly boost the number of FNMs, swing voters, and young voters to secure a victory? This includes boosting his personal appeal. It will require the party to have a compelling and clear message on why the PLP should be fired and the FNM hired.

A part of this messaging is the party’s plans on economic and tourism growth, jobs, crime, immigration, housing, infrastructure, governance and accountability, and other issues.

Momentum in politics is about human and social psychology. It is about engendering a mood, a feeling, a bandwagon effect that the other side will lose and that your side can win.

While the FNM still has to convince many it can win, it is in a better place than it was in January of this year. At this juncture the PLP must convince the country that it has not lost significant ground and that it can be the first government in decades to win re-election.

This will be the proverbial tall order for both parties. No party has this election won or in the bag. For now, it is best to take with an entire box of salt, the bravado or confidence of anyone who tells you that they know who is going to win or lose.

As in the past, there are naysayers or doubters who tell you that there is no way the incumbents will lose. They have been proven wrong repeatedly in many election cycles. This should be no comfort to the FNM. Eventually, an incumbent government will win re-election. The question is, when?