By FAY SIMMONS

Tribune Business Reporter

jsimmons@tribunemedia.net

A Bahamian petroleum retailer yesterday warned motorists may not enjoy the recent reduction in gasoline prices for long following the renewed eruption of conflict and tensions in the Middle East.

Vasco Bastian, vice-president of the Bahamas Petroleum Retailers Association, said consumers are unlikely to see an immediate increase in pump prices because local wholesalers - Rubis, Esso (Sol Petroleum) and Shell (FOCOL Holdings) - recently received fuel shipments that reflected lower international oil prices.

However, he warned that further prolonged disruption to global oil supplies could quickly reverse the recent relief motorists have enjoyed. "It definitely would have an impact," said Mr Bastian, after hostilities between the US and Iran resumed. 

"I don't know that the impact would be immediate because we just had a price reduction on our last shipment, but if this develops into a prolonged conflict or returns to the level we saw before, then it certainly could have a significant effect.

"Once crude oil prices on the global market begin to react, it will definitely have an effect here. This is significant. It's not something anybody is looking forward to, and I'm certainly not looking forward to it." Both Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate oil indices were up by 1 percent last night, with per barrel prices hovering just below $79 and $75, respectively.

Ms Bastian’s comments came as the oil markets reacted to renewed fighting in the Middle East. The latest escalation followed additional US military strikes against Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump declared an earlier ceasefire had effectively collapsed, raising fresh concerns about the security of energy supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for around 20 percent global oil exports.

Mr Bastian said the timing was particularly disappointing because crude prices had only recently begun moving in the consumer’s favour. "When it looked like things were beginning to settle, crude oil prices started trending downward," he said. "That meant lower fuel prices for consumers here in The Bahamas. But any disruption in that region has the potential to send prices back up."

Local motorists have already benefited from that trend, with pump prices falling following lower-priced fuel shipments that arrived about two weeks ago. Mr Bastian said the industry is now watching closely to see whether the latest geopolitical tensions prove temporary or develop into a longer-term disruption.

"Right now we're in a holding pattern. It's a wait-and-see situation," he said. "I hope we're not heading back up, but we'll be following developments very closely."

While expressing hope that diplomacy prevails, Mr Bastian acknowledged retailers are concerned about the potential for another period of elevated fuel costs if crude prices remain under upward pressure.

"I'm nervous because, while the impact may not be immediate, it could become significant if this situation escalates," he said. "I just hope and pray it doesn't return to what we experienced a few months ago."