I appreciate your analysis, we clearly have differing views on how risky Aliv is but that is what makes a market! I love how a stock is traded and both the buyer and the seller believe based on their analysis and information they have made the right decision. Like we said only time will tell.

A few points why Aliv is less risky than you think. Aliv has very experienced intelligent management and if you speak to them they do not even consider voice revenue in their forecasts anymore. They assume that “voice goes to zero”. There is no putting the genie back in the bottle, Bahamians love what’s app and it is here to stay. Most importantly URCA, the cellular regulator desperately wants Aliv to succeed. It has been quite lenient and generous with Aliv (questionable if they met their rollout targets and should have forfeited some of its 18 mill performance bond) and will continue to be so as it wants the sector liberalized which is only possible with a vibrant competitor to BTC. It is wonderful when your regulator is rooting for your success, it is like having an ace in the hole. I agree with the other risks you highlighted.

We continue to differ as to opening this offer up to the general public. I would just add that contrary to many bloggers views BISX despite its very serious limitations ( chief among them illiquidity) remains a wonderful wealth creating opportunity and one of the few ways for the average Bahamians to become owners in this economy. At every return the default reaction should be to give the Bahamian public more investing opportunities ( with caveats of course). I laugh every time I read these bloggers disparaging BISX, investing in BISX has allowed me to retire 25 years sooner than I could have otherwise, and what I did any average Bahamian could do with a bit of fiscal discipline and financial expertise. They get up and go to work ( a job they probably hate) and I do with my day what I want, no more punching the clock. That is what is possible trading on BISX it is liberating. I will end with this note on Cable, it debuted in 1994 with an IPO price of $1, at its peak it traded at a share split adjusted price of $25 a couple of years ago. That is wealth creation that can be life changing.

The point I was making which is correct is that this is not debt issued by cable or that will be paid from cable’s earnings. This is debt issued and paid for by future Aliv earnings. This choice was deliberate as investors have had more than their fill of cable debt ( I agree completely that cable is overextended and leveraged) and the offering would have failed had it been structured as such.

So to analyze cable’s debt and balance sheet and conclude it is not a wise financial decision, as you did is incorrect. One needs to review Aliv’s financials as I have, as I was one of the solicited investors. There is no dispute that the earnings of Aliv will accrue and be consolidated into Cable’s in the proportion of their share ownership. That was not in question.

This is an offering with risk, no doubt, but as a savvy investor knows risk and returns go hand in hand. The key is to be an astute evalutor of risk and ensure that the expected return compensates for that risk. Risk is not always bad it is an opportunity.

As to Aliv having revenues of just 12 million and losses of 55 million you must realize that Aliv is a startup, capital intensive company, with significant growth potential, very rare in this economy. In the initial year of operation those losses are to expected. If Aliv reaches their goal in 3 years of 50% market share and ARPU of 56 then ebidta will be 33 million and the company will be a success and the initial losses of 55 mill meaningless. So far they are on track with market share but ARPU is lagging. Only time will tell but I am thrilled that as a Bahamian I have the opportunity to evaluate and if I like participate. This option should be extended to as many Bahamians as possible who have the 50 k to invest, not just a select few.

Your analysis is incorrect in a very material respect, this preference share offering is not tied into Cable Bahamas balance sheet or debt. This is debt issued by Aliv as a separate entity from Cable, true Cable has management control and owns 48.75% of stock but debt repayments will be made from future Aliv earnings.

The reason the interest rate is so high is to compensate investors for the risk that this is divorced from Cable and is totally unsecured debt. So if Aliv is a flop one can lose their whole investment.

I agree with mad hatter that this should be open to the general public, as the minimum allocation is 50k, and if one can afford to invest this amount the expectation is that one would be capable of making a wise investment decision or have the means to obtain it professionally. All share offerings should be open to the public and filled from the bottom up, as this is one of the few meaningful ways the general public can partake in significant wealth generation in our economy. We are watching to see if the present government fulfills their pledge to make a Aliv and BTC ordinary shares available to all!

You seem to have a problem with even the most basic mathematical concepts. Let me make it easy for you would you rather live in a city where the odds of you being the victim of crime is 1 in 100,000 or 1 in 10,000. We have some of the highest violent crime rates in the world on a per capita basis, which is the fairest comparison of all.

DDK what you say is not true, you need to travel and be exposed to another reality, there are many safe communities. I lived for many months in a major u.s. city ( population over a million) and we did not lock our front door, children ran in and out of the house, played on the streets with no fear whatsoever. We travelled for a weekend getaway to another state and did not lock the front door! Try that in Nassau. I would not let my child play on any street in Nassau. Stop making excuses, Nassau is a crime infested city. I never feel safe anywhere in Nassau. Admitting we have a very serious problem is the first step in solving it.

Send a crew to Long Island, the potholes here are ridiculous and nothing is being done about them despite repeated assurances from our member of parliament that they will be fixed. Tired of talk patch our potholes!

Then they called me, they told two guys ‘go that way,’ these other two go get the van and make sure the reporters don’t see me.”

What does the government have to hide? Why try to hide from the press? Whatever you think about the merits of this case, it is troubling the way the government handled the process. Being secretive and denying this man due process. We are such an immature democracy it is not funny, and any Bahamian who has faith in receiving due process from this government needs his head examined.

There you go off on another tangent again. Try to focus. You made a false statement. Try not to make false statements, educate yourself. Ask any contractor, if you ever worked on a large project in this country you would understand. Haitians are invaluable and do the jobs few if any Bahamians would. We all benefit from this cheap Labour. This is the reality, no diversion or deflection changes that reality.

I simply took issue with the statement you made which I quoted. It was a false statement, nothing you said in your reply refuted this. To believe that the average Bahamian does not benefit from cheap Haitian Labour is divorced from reality and to be ignorant of basic economic theory.

Now the other point you are making that they are a financial burden on Bahamians I do not dispute, as I agree clearly that is the case. Now the question is what is the net benefit and I would say the jury is out on that and a through economic analysis is necessary. You seem to have already made up your mind, what data is that based on? On the face of it my guess is that they are a net economic benefit to The Bahamas. I have a degree in economics from a top 20 American university, have worked at the Central Bank and was trained in economic analysis and have managed a very successful business, I could be wrong. What qualifications do you have?Would love to see a comprehensive study done by the central bank. Haitians do pay taxes, especially with the implementation of Vat which is a rather difficult tax to avoid.

bottom line :The reality of cheap Haitian Labour is a massive subsidy for every Bahamian, it comes with negatives, no one absent of a comprehensive economic analysis knows the net benefit.

“It is not the average Bahamian that keeps illegal immigrants employed“, this is a patently false statement. The average Bahamian benefits from cheap Haitian Labour and either directly or indirectly employs them as well. Any one in the construction Industry in The Bahamas will tell you the sector would collapse without Haitian Labour. It is their cheaper Labour that subsidizes the construction of Bahamian homes. Without this the cost of the average home would be thousands to tens of thousands more expensive. Even if they rent they benefit as rent would be higher but for the lower Labour costs associated with construction. Same for the landscaping business, does the average Bahamian clean their own yards, if not they are benefiting from lower Labour costs due to cheaper Haitian Labour. This is true for many other sectors of the Bahamian economy as well, Haitian are here for a reason they are employed by Bahamians, some average some rich, but the benefit apples to both.