These are the facts:

1.) An incumbent Bahamian government has not won reelection for the entire 21st century

2.) Brave has literally no major policy accomplishments to define his era

3.) Brave has faced numerous high level scandals

4.) The PHellP could not even increase their vote total by 10k from 17-21 even on the backs of an extremely unpopular Minnis administration (signifying that Brave was a weak candidate)

5.) An election is less than 2 years away

6.) The general, broadly speaking worldwide trend is that first time incumbent governments perform worse on their second election compared to the first

Which of these facts is not objective?

Brave would have to defy a well established political pattern in this country in order to win a second term, and there is literally no argument in favour of him being able to do that. I agree that Pintard is not an inspiring candidate at all, but he doesn't have to be. In fact, I will argue that Pintard is a stronger candidate than Minnis was in 2017 simply for the fact that he has faced no major leadership challenges (unlike Minnis prior to that election), the party is *mostly* united around him other than a few Minnis cult holdouts who are still drinking the Kool Aid. Generally speaking the days of politically astute and charismatic candidates like Pindling and Ingraham are over, and both the PHellP and FNM are a shadow of what they historically were (the FNM more so, they had minimal success before Ingraham and the track record has been absolutely horrible since his retirement, the PHellP at least was able to move past the Pindling era with more grace). Recent Bahamian elections have been about "just not being the other guy".

I have no dog in this race, the country is doomed no matter which party is in power IMO, but if I had to put money down I would absolutely bet on Pintard to win simply because there is a well established pattern of incumbency being a major disadvantage and Brave has given voters no reason to make this cycle any different (and performed poorly in '21 to begin with). I don't believe it will be a 30+ blowout like the most recent elections because public hatred for Brave is not near what it was with Christie or Minnis, but he has not given any reason to believe that he can 1.) retain his existing voters and 2.) attract new voters. This see saw cycle will continue until another strongman politician appears on the Bahamian political scene.

So what? Sir Mosely and Powell have been proven to be almost prophetic in their predictions of what would happen to the UK with mass migration. Do you think Churchill would be pleased at the current state of the UK? Do you think the men that died fighting in Europe, N Africa and the Pacific were fighting for their children to be racial minorities in their own ancestral homeland? Get real. Mass migration has been an unmitigated disaster for the Commonwealth in general, it is the same story whether it is the UK, Cuckuda, Australia, doesn't matter. There is not a single instance where it has been beneficial.

> to the extent that there is continuing local interest in current political developments in Britain which has always been seen as a fine example of the Westminster system of governance in practice.

This quote baffles me, especially in light of the previous mention of Reform. The 2024 UK general election proved what a horribly unrepresentative system FPTP really is. Reform pulled nearly 15% of the total vote yet walked away with 5 out of 650 seats. Is that really "representative"? I think not. We in the Bahamas need to move to abandon this archaic system as well if we ever want to have a chance of breaking the two party stranglehold that is choking the nation to death.

This is just embarrassing.

A sign that silly season will soon be upon us.

Well said. Our currency value would be in the toilet if it was allowed to free float.

I know you are a Minnis fanboy but you need to face the music: Minnis was the primary reason the FNM lost in 2021. The FNM should have called a convention like they were obligated to and replaced him in anticipation of an upcoming election if they wanted to have a fighting chance. The FNM vote total in 2017 was over 90k, in 2021 it was a bit over 45k. The PHellP vote total increased from by less than 10k between the two elections. The conclusion is simple: FNM voters and previous Minnis voting independents either 1.) stayed home or 2.) voted for CoI or miscellaneous parties. The biggest problem within the Minnis wing FNM was/is arrogance and a refusal to recognize reality. Anyone tuned in to the will of the populace knew that public uproar against Minnis was very high and that a change was needed if the FNM wanted to be competitive in that election, but the Minnis cult did not want to hear any of that and led the FNM to a humiliating defeat losing stronghold seats that had voted FNM for decades. The collective IQ of the FNM in 2021 was very low and they have nobody to blame to for the loss but themselves.

An incumbent government has not won an election in the entire 21st century in this country. Brave has done literally nothing to inspire any turnout for him, despite having opportunities for easy political layups with something simple like partial marijuana legalization, and on the contrary has dealt with numerous high level scandals throughout the course of his administration. Regardless of whatever your opinion on Brave is, statistically speaking electoral odds are not good for the incumbent government by default in this country. Objective analysis requires bias to be put aside and without bias it is easy to say that it is unlikely Brave and the PHellP win the next election just given the historical voting patterns of this country.

I agree with 90% of this letter, but this glazes Minnis way too hard.

I can only speak for the Abaco experience, but Minnis was an utter failure in the aftermath of Dorian. An island that consistently sent two FNM MPs to the House was treated as a mere afterthought and left to die. It was over a year and a half before my family had running water; Abaco was hell on earth for a while and nodody in Nassau cared about trying to fix it. Central and South Abaco in the entire electoral history of the Bahamas never voted PHellP until 2021, that alone speaks volumes to the level of discontent that was on this island with Minnis. You know you suck ass as a FNM PM when even the conchy joes don't come out to support you.

CONVID was a nothing burger as well and nothing Minnis did helped it go away any quicker. Not a single person enjoyed his lockdowns, curfews, asinine ideas such as shopping via surname and I am very thankful that era of retardation has passed. For as horrible as Brave and the PHellP are in other aspects, they were not nearly as onerous in their handling of convid.

Minnis was undoubtedly the worst PM to ever take office in this country and I say that as someone who voted for the FNM in 2017. He was a complete disappointment and the FNM should really cut all connection with that "wing" of the party if they want to have a chance at winning an election anytime soon. Brave has done absolutely nothing to inspire any confidence in him, but he isn't the worst PM just by the virtue of not being Minnis.

God also gives us incompetent rulers as a form of punishment. Scripture clearly says that God made the rulers of Samaria (Israel after the split from Judah) weak because of the idolatry at Bethel, to the point where there was constant political instability and murders of monarchs until the Assyrians took over. Scripture also clearly states that God abandoned Judah into the hands of the Babylonians because of their infidelity towards Him. God gives us the rulers we as a collective deserve; the ruling political class is a sad reflection of Bahamians as a whole.