The statistic to look at in the article, is the decline of imports to the Bahamas:
> $628.5 million, or 16.5 per cent, dropping from $3.79 billion in 2014 to $3.162 billion last year. Bahamian imports thus fell to their lowest level in five years, since 2011, *another sign of a struggling economy where consumer demand is relatively low.*

Folks are spending less. There is less money to go around. The economy contracted by 1.7% but in real terms to the average person on the street real spending and real buying power declined by double that ~ about 3.5% depending on which method the Central Bank uses to calculate the GDP. And when you factor in VAT, the purchasing power of Bahamians has significantly declined.

So there are no bright spots anywhere. I am willing to bet that the car dealerships and car lots are going to have to scale back significantly as the economy contracts. Then the appliance stores will suffer. All major high-dollar domestic purchases will see a decline, and some will close.

In reference to John's points about the Chinese & Baha Mar, what most people do not realise, including the government, is that the Chinese gained economic benefit, not by having a completed Baha Mar, but by exporting labourers, raw material and lending money to intramural companies (EXIM to CCA) to stimulate their internal economy. They don't give a damn about finishing. They have reaped economic benefit from construction supplies, human capital, monetary capital interest, political capital and a whole host of other on-balance and off-balance sheet things that do not relate to the successful completion of Baha Mar. The Chinese have unfinished construction projects strewn all over the world.

So Baha Mar failed. The Chinese would rather have it in limbo, holding the liens rather than an entrepreneur coming and using American capital. That would diminish their economic and political clout on America's doorstep. So they will continue to do nothing, and if the Bahamian economy languishes, it is no skin off their back. They already have what they want.

As for the domestic economy, a couple of more years of the same, and I can see the Bahamian dollar exchanging at about $0.35 cents to the US dollar.

All of the smart Bahamian money has already left. Just read the Panama Papers for the Bahamian companies and Bahamian names who have exported capital out of the country into Panama.

Yes, but only one government officially sanctioned and profited from drug running.

Another brick comes out from under the foundation. With an air freight boycott to an island that imports everything, well it won't be long before shortages and ... anarchy !

The big question is: "Can all-Bahamian wealth managers attract business with the sullied reputation of the Bahamas in Warren Davis, Julian Brown, Owen Bethel, Caledonia, Gibraltar, Dominion Securities, Erica Callender, Alonzo Knowles, Martin Tremblay, Kelvin Leach, Rohn Knowles etc etc etc. and a whole host of others?"

Mr. Moss needs a reality check.

High Net Worth Individuals who need financial services, need to operate their businesses in jurisdictions that penalize tax avoidance and tax evasion. The need to travel freely. They need access to their money in a timely fashion. They need the appearance of compliance in all that they do.

The Bahamas cannot buck the worldwide trend of tax compliance and information reporting. We would be further ostracized as a rogue player. The old model of a tax haven is dead and gone. Ask Ryan Pinder. Why did he move from Deltec bank to a law firm?

The writing is on the wall, and it is too late for us to do anything about it. We do not have the modern infrastructure to service high net worth individuals in a compliant world. We just have the dregs from Latin America who are following the old model of tax evasion through Panamanian companies with bearer shares.

Paul Moss just doesn't get it. The Bahamas model of financial services is Dead Man Walking.

Any increase in landing fees will have a negative impact on tourism. The Bahamas is already among the most expensive tourism destinations for middle class Americans and Canadians, who are budget-conscious travelers.

The Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Cuba for Canadians (and soon Americans), and Jamaica offer cheaper vacations with more colour (Costa Rica has the rain forest ecosystems, Jamaica has the Blue Mountains and Ochos Rios river rafting, Cuba has the Spanish culture that is alluring) and we have hair braiders and jet ski operators.

We need another solution other than tourism.

Man -- it's Obeah. I called his name in another thread about the national debt, and his picture appears. (I referenced him as the last -- and perhaps only Financed minister of an independent Bahamas to deliver a balanced budget with no deficit.)

Power to you, Sir William.

Here is the breakdown:

The government needs a debt reduction of over half a billion dollars to remain with an economically viable debt load, as measured the debt to GDP ratio of 60%.

The GDP is the total economy. You add up all of the money changing hands, and that is the GDP. It is the amount of business and money moving around in the Bahamas. Right now the GDP is about 9 billion dollars (you count absolutely everything - from a person being paid a wage to what they spent, to what the merchants spend buying that stuff etc). The national debt is 6.6 billion dollars, so the debt is approaching what our economy is worth. Any slowdown in the economy, and that is bad news for the debt ratio.

The IDB says that when the government debt is over 60% of the total economy, you are in deep trouble. We are in deep trouble, for a very small economy.

What this headline means, is that to get out of serious trouble, we need to pay down close to $600 million dollars of debt to be sustainable and bring down the debt to GDP ratio of 60%.

What Christie says, is that we have reduced going further into the hole (the deficit) by $389 million. In other words, we borrowed $390 million less than last year. The deficit is the shortfall between what the government takes in and what the government spends. The last balanced budget where the government spent what they took in, in the Bahamas was delivered by William Allen and there hasn't been one since.

This is disturbing because the economy of the Bahamas hinges on two pillars. In the US, the debt to GDP ration is 90-some percent, but they have a population of 320 million, a robust diversified economy and GDP growth.

This article states that we be good, mon, if the economy grows by 5-6%. If you grow the economy, the GDP, then the debt ratio falls. But that is impossible. It is like SuperValue saying, we will be fine if we can sell 10,000 more pounds of filet mignon steak this year. Not gonna happen.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him think.