When you have a GDP economy of $13 billion USD, and you have to shut down a $50 million outflow, it shows that the country is in more trouble than the Central Bank is letting on.
Well said Porcupine. We are still in the tribal stages here. Look at Birdie and Tal. Their partisan tribalism trumps their common sense, patriotism, rationalism and logical abilities. Until all of us, especially those in power can dig into inner enlightenment and personal resources to put aside tribalism and do things for the common good, we will always be a "developing" nation. I don't think that is possible unless at least 3 of the oldest current generations are mouldering in their graves (underwater at that, with global warming).
Devaluation would not resolve any problems. It would come as a result of the depletion of reserves. Our money is pegged to the US dollar at one-to-one. The peg is based on two things -- our reserves and our economy (GDP). The GDP is in free-fall with tourism as the first pillar of the economy. It brings in the hard convertible currency that we need to buy food to feed the nation and oil for energy. Without that hard currency we are screwed. Back in the day before independence, we had a currency board (not a central bank). The currency board actually held real US dollars and British Pounds on a one-to-one basis. Each Bahamian dollar was backed by hard currency & was convertible for a short time. Then Pindling discovered government debt & instituted the Central Bank with a non-convertible currency backed by just a fraction of US dollars. If we don't have enough economic activity to back the amount of hard currency that the Central Bank holds, and the tourism tap is shut off, and we keep spending hard currency to feed the nation, then reserves will fall and the Bahamian dollar will be devalued. We need continuous flow of hard currency to keep the value of the dollar on par. We do not have that. Currently the reserves can feed the nation for 4 months.
This is the thin edge of the wedge to total hard currency restrictions. There is simply not enough reserves to maintain a 1:1 peg to the American dollar. I predict that if the COVID lockdown goes on for months, we will see a devaluation of the Bahamian dollar -- maybe even to the levels of 2 to 1 (two Bahamian dollars for $1 USD).
What blows me away, is that a prison guard executed an escapee in the back of a prison bus some years ago in an extra-judicial killing and the government never charged him with murder.
Ha! Hubert Ingraham wanted to make technology the 3rd Pillar of the Economy back in 2007 and the the PLP campaigned against it.
As for this committee bunch, there is geezers, at least one criminal, lawyers who know squat, a titular head of something or other and not one single technology advisor !!!! This is in spite of the fact that they have identified technology as the saving grace. Typically Bahamian. Dis een gern nowhere!
banker says...
We already have a very junior exchange called BISX.
On Entrepreneur touts plan for junior stock market
Posted 13 May 2020, 11:18 a.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
When you have a GDP economy of $13 billion USD, and you have to shut down a $50 million outflow, it shows that the country is in more trouble than the Central Bank is letting on.
On Central Bank chokes off $50m investment currency outflows
Posted 11 May 2020, 11:22 a.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
Well said Porcupine. We are still in the tribal stages here. Look at Birdie and Tal. Their partisan tribalism trumps their common sense, patriotism, rationalism and logical abilities. Until all of us, especially those in power can dig into inner enlightenment and personal resources to put aside tribalism and do things for the common good, we will always be a "developing" nation. I don't think that is possible unless at least 3 of the oldest current generations are mouldering in their graves (underwater at that, with global warming).
On 'Worst ever mistake' for inflated reserves
Posted 6 May 2020, 12:44 p.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
It is a sovereignty vanity thing.
On Restrictions give $300m foreign reserves 'buffer'
Posted 6 May 2020, 11:47 a.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
Devaluation would not resolve any problems. It would come as a result of the depletion of reserves. Our money is pegged to the US dollar at one-to-one. The peg is based on two things -- our reserves and our economy (GDP). The GDP is in free-fall with tourism as the first pillar of the economy. It brings in the hard convertible currency that we need to buy food to feed the nation and oil for energy. Without that hard currency we are screwed. Back in the day before independence, we had a currency board (not a central bank). The currency board actually held real US dollars and British Pounds on a one-to-one basis. Each Bahamian dollar was backed by hard currency & was convertible for a short time. Then Pindling discovered government debt & instituted the Central Bank with a non-convertible currency backed by just a fraction of US dollars.
If we don't have enough economic activity to back the amount of hard currency that the Central Bank holds, and the tourism tap is shut off, and we keep spending hard currency to feed the nation, then reserves will fall and the Bahamian dollar will be devalued. We need continuous flow of hard currency to keep the value of the dollar on par. We do not have that. Currently the reserves can feed the nation for 4 months.
On Restrictions give $300m foreign reserves 'buffer'
Posted 6 May 2020, 11:41 a.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
Bahamian dollar dividends are okay and should be paid.
On Restrictions give $300m foreign reserves 'buffer'
Posted 5 May 2020, 8:08 p.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
Most of the inflated reserves happened under Perry Christie's watch.
On 'Worst ever mistake' for inflated reserves
Posted 5 May 2020, 8:07 p.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
This is the thin edge of the wedge to total hard currency restrictions. There is simply not enough reserves to maintain a 1:1 peg to the American dollar. I predict that if the COVID lockdown goes on for months, we will see a devaluation of the Bahamian dollar -- maybe even to the levels of 2 to 1 (two Bahamian dollars for $1 USD).
On Restrictions give $300m foreign reserves 'buffer'
Posted 5 May 2020, 3:59 p.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
What blows me away, is that a prison guard executed an escapee in the back of a prison bus some years ago in an extra-judicial killing and the government never charged him with murder.
On ‘Desperate’ inmates warn anger’s rising
Posted 30 April 2020, 12:17 p.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
Ha! Hubert Ingraham wanted to make technology the 3rd Pillar of the Economy back in 2007 and the the PLP campaigned against it.
As for this committee bunch, there is geezers, at least one criminal, lawyers who know squat, a titular head of something or other and not one single technology advisor !!!! This is in spite of the fact that they have identified technology as the saving grace. Typically Bahamian. Dis een gern nowhere!
On Recovery co-chair calls for 'integrated economy'
Posted 28 April 2020, 11:30 a.m. Suggest removal