The number of new confirmed infections in the Bahamas has been stable for a month (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir…) so the curve is completely flat and the curfew/lockdown is clearly working. Of course it would be nice it the curve were not flat but declining, but that would require better obedience of the curfew/lockdown/quarantine.
You appear to be assuming, clearly incorrectly, that the same fraction of the population in the Bahamas is infected as in Italy. Also, it's a Corona virus not a flu virus. Nevertheless, it would be useful to know the monthly death rate in all 4 recent years. My guess is that the death rates will not be significantly different in all 4 years, because there are still very few infections in the Bahamas, thanks to the Curfew and Lockdown.
Curfew and lockdown must continue until there's a clear sustained decrease in the number of new infections, since otherwise we risk 14% of the population dying. There is no other path, unfortunately.
A number of overseas visitors/winter residents/retirees are hunkered down on the family islands, spending freely, especially now that hardware and other stores are re-opening. However, these visitors (corona-free, like Bahamian family island residents) will soon be forced to return home to their corona-riddled home countries when their 8-months limit is up. I suggest that as a one-time expedient to bring in useful hard currency these visitors be allowed to stay longer than 8 months. This would of course only apply to those that are already here, not to future visitors.
There are quite a few visitors who are Covid-free, have been here for months, and are spending money freely, but who will soon have to leave because their 8 months is up. Maybe they could be allowed to stay (and spend!) until things normalize more.
The lockdown is clearly working, since confirmed cases are not increasing exponentially, and there have been at least ten times more tests than cases. Most of the family islands are case-free, and if that holds for a couple more weeks, they can be gradually opened up (provided of course inter-island movement continues to be prohibited.
A brilliant idea - but first please make sure that here are NO infections (even asymptomatic) anywhere in the Bahamas. This means testing everyone, twice (second test 1 week after the first) - quite a tall order, but do-able.
Perhaps the Government could set up compulsory dedicated monitored quarantine facilities for returning Bahamians, as several other countries have done. But until this can be achieved, it is prudent to completely close the borders.
The Government's response here in the Bahamas has been good, but there are at least 2 simple low-cost additional measures that Chinese scientists consider essential. (1) everyone should wear a mask whenever not at home (2) even mild cases should not be isolated at home, where they will always infect others, but placed in separate controlled quarantine facilities. Please read this recent interview with the chief Chinese scientist: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03…
The problem is, those contacts may be infected and contagious but asymptomatic. This is why the lock-down is wise, even if highly inconvenient. Ideally all the contacts would be placed in individual complete isolation, not simply at home with other family members.
paulhummerman says...
The number of new confirmed infections in the Bahamas has been stable for a month (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir…) so the curve is completely flat and the curfew/lockdown is clearly working. Of course it would be nice it the curve were not flat but declining, but that would require better obedience of the curfew/lockdown/quarantine.
On SATURDAY UPDATE: Five newly confirmed COVID-19 cases – all from Bimini
Posted 27 April 2020, 12:06 p.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
You appear to be assuming, clearly incorrectly, that the same fraction of the population in the Bahamas is infected as in Italy. Also, it's a Corona virus not a flu virus. Nevertheless, it would be useful to know the monthly death rate in all 4 recent years. My guess is that the death rates will not be significantly different in all 4 years, because there are still very few infections in the Bahamas, thanks to the Curfew and Lockdown.
On COVID-19 SUNDAY UPDATE: Two newly confirmed cases
Posted 27 April 2020, noon Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
Curfew and lockdown must continue until there's a clear sustained decrease in the number of new infections, since otherwise we risk 14% of the population dying. There is no other path, unfortunately.
On UPDATED: PM tables emergency powers extension, gives latest on COVID-19
Posted 27 April 2020, 9 a.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
A number of overseas visitors/winter residents/retirees are hunkered down on the family islands, spending freely, especially now that hardware and other stores are re-opening. However, these visitors (corona-free, like Bahamian family island residents) will soon be forced to return home to their corona-riddled home countries when their 8-months limit is up. I suggest that as a one-time expedient to bring in useful hard currency these visitors be allowed to stay longer than 8 months. This would of course only apply to those that are already here, not to future visitors.
On Most Eleuthera firms suffer 90% drop-off
Posted 23 April 2020, 10:10 p.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
There are quite a few visitors who are Covid-free, have been here for months, and are spending money freely, but who will soon have to leave because their 8 months is up. Maybe they could be allowed to stay (and spend!) until things normalize more.
On Tourism has 'no choice' to devise virus safeguards
Posted 20 April 2020, 3:51 p.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
The lockdown is clearly working, since confirmed cases are not increasing exponentially, and there have been at least ten times more tests than cases. Most of the family islands are case-free, and if that holds for a couple more weeks, they can be gradually opened up (provided of course inter-island movement continues to be prohibited.
On COVID-19: One new confirmed case
Posted 18 April 2020, 7 a.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
A brilliant idea - but first please make sure that here are NO infections (even asymptomatic) anywhere in the Bahamas. This means testing everyone, twice (second test 1 week after the first) - quite a tall order, but do-able.
On EDITORIAL: A Bahamas for Bahamians
Posted 7 April 2020, 1:30 p.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
Perhaps the Government could set up compulsory dedicated monitored quarantine facilities for returning Bahamians, as several other countries have done. But until this can be achieved, it is prudent to completely close the borders.
On Henfield defends decision to close country’s borders
Posted 30 March 2020, 7:48 p.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
The Government's response here in the Bahamas has been good, but there are at least 2 simple low-cost additional measures that Chinese scientists consider essential. (1) everyone should wear a mask whenever not at home (2) even mild cases should not be isolated at home, where they will always infect others, but placed in separate controlled quarantine facilities. Please read this recent interview with the chief Chinese scientist: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03…
On UPDATED: Ministry confirms new case of COVID-19
Posted 28 March 2020, 10:08 p.m. Suggest removal
paulhummerman says...
The problem is, those contacts may be infected and contagious but asymptomatic. This is why the lock-down is wise, even if highly inconvenient. Ideally all the contacts would be placed in individual complete isolation, not simply at home with other family members.
On Report: 600 being tracked in The Bahamas for signs of COVID-19
Posted 28 March 2020, 8:16 p.m. Suggest removal