There is an argument to advance that supports what you say. Last week Oxford University came out with a model that suggests 68% of the UK had the infection by 19th March and 80% of Italy by 9th March. They suggest substantial herd immunity in those 2 countries has already been established.
This is potential cause for great optimism, but it is ONLY a model and not proven by any means yet. That is why this editorial is still correct that we MUST continue to self isolate.
Until the data and antigen tests confirm one way or another, the alternative - much more negative - model put forward by Imperial College, London could still be right. Let us pray that in this global situation Oxford is right and Imperial is wrong. But for now we must stay in place.
Simple - we have low numbers at this time; it could have been a lot worse if those actions had not been taken. Credit where credit is due. God bless you.
If you look at the data thus far in the US, some states have proportionally very few cases. Look at the real data not some of the media reports, in that what are the % of cases in certain states? Then look at the data on what % of people who have the virus actually have serious illness rather than just mild, few or no symptoms. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/u…
If we look at states that are not hot spots like NY, CA - and take Texas, with a population of 28.3 million. According to the aforementioned link, they have 974 cases, which is 0.0034%. And remember that is just cases, not deaths - and remember a significant % of cases may have no symptoms or very few. It will be very interesting to see if Texas and other states get to e.g. 0.1% infection rate, which would be a 30 fold increase for Texas. 0.1% in Nassau (assuming population of 270,000) would be 270 infections. 0.01% would be 27 infections. And the current infection rate in Texas applied to Nassau would be 9.3 cases.
Think about it... If hygiene measure and social distancing works, this may well be far from apocalyptic. Then think about that in regards to Tourism here? There are options... Open up in a few weeks to those with a negative test, or an antibody test showing they beat it and are no longer infectious?
Of course, it could be much, much higher percentages already have it, but no symptoms or already beat it. The herd immunity angle...
Closing till May 15? Maybe sound, but surely move in smaller increments would be better for the Bahamian economy while not jeopardizing health, and allow decisions to be made on the emergence of better and increasingly up to date data.
Entrepreneur says...
Great article Neil - thank you for all your incredible reporting and journalism.
On 'Govt cannot save everyone'
Posted 5 April 2020, 1:22 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
There is an argument to advance that supports what you say. Last week Oxford University came out with a model that suggests 68% of the UK had the infection by 19th March and 80% of Italy by 9th March. They suggest substantial herd immunity in those 2 countries has already been established.
This is potential cause for great optimism, but it is ONLY a model and not proven by any means yet. That is why this editorial is still correct that we MUST continue to self isolate.
Until the data and antigen tests confirm one way or another, the alternative - much more negative - model put forward by Imperial College, London could still be right. Let us pray that in this global situation Oxford is right and Imperial is wrong. But for now we must stay in place.
On EDITORIAL: Stop this virus spreading within our community
Posted 28 March 2020, 5:47 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
Infection rate in Texas for example, is currently only 0.0034%
80% of them will only have mild or few symptoms...
What number of people die when unemployment goes up by 1% ??
No judgment as I don't know enough about true data on Corona, but just asking really important questions.
On 4 MORE CASES: New revelations highlight danger – so stay inside your home
Posted 26 March 2020, 10:11 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
Very best wishes to everyone on Abaco...
On Fears spread in Abaco after fifth case confirmed
Posted 26 March 2020, 5:41 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
Great good luck to every one and a full and fast recovery! God Bless.
On 4 MORE CASES: New revelations highlight danger – so stay inside your home
Posted 26 March 2020, 5:22 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
Well said, this is woefully insufficient. I agree completely with Bogart.
And in addition any cut offs should be postponed until at least 1 month after the Bahamian people go back to work...
On Disconnections to be suspended until March 31
Posted 26 March 2020, 4:36 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
Simple - we have low numbers at this time; it could have been a lot worse if those actions had not been taken. Credit where credit is due. God bless you.
On Business dilemma - how long can we survive?
Posted 26 March 2020, 12:54 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
This is also encouraging data in regards to social distancing measures
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-saphie…
On Business dilemma - how long can we survive?
Posted 26 March 2020, 12:52 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
Encouraging data when people social distance: -
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-saphie…
On NIB expects 15,000 to sign on for benefits
Posted 26 March 2020, 12:50 p.m. Suggest removal
Entrepreneur says...
If you look at the data thus far in the US, some states have proportionally very few cases. Look at the real data not some of the media reports, in that what are the % of cases in certain states? Then look at the data on what % of people who have the virus actually have serious illness rather than just mild, few or no symptoms.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/u…
If we look at states that are not hot spots like NY, CA - and take Texas, with a population of 28.3 million. According to the aforementioned link, they have 974 cases, which is 0.0034%. And remember that is just cases, not deaths - and remember a significant % of cases may have no symptoms or very few. It will be very interesting to see if Texas and other states get to e.g. 0.1% infection rate, which would be a 30 fold increase for Texas. 0.1% in Nassau (assuming population of 270,000) would be 270 infections. 0.01% would be 27 infections. And the current infection rate in Texas applied to Nassau would be 9.3 cases.
Think about it... If hygiene measure and social distancing works, this may well be far from apocalyptic. Then think about that in regards to Tourism here? There are options... Open up in a few weeks to those with a negative test, or an antibody test showing they beat it and are no longer infectious?
Of course, it could be much, much higher percentages already have it, but no symptoms or already beat it. The herd immunity angle...
Closing till May 15? Maybe sound, but surely move in smaller increments would be better for the Bahamian economy while not jeopardizing health, and allow decisions to be made on the emergence of better and increasingly up to date data.
On Atlantis' lights out until May 15
Posted 26 March 2020, 12:28 p.m. Suggest removal