Comment history

Francis_James says...

We do have some data. We have a university which looks at these matters. We just choose not to read what the faculty write. Here is a link which you might find useful https://journals.sfu.ca/cob/index.php/f…

Francis_James says...

It really is time that we recognized that the "third wave" has come and gone. The question is are we nearing the end of the fifth wave? The long-term trend is downward. So the MOH data suggest we are coming to the end of this phase.

On Another 23 COVID deaths confirmed

Posted 7 October 2021, 9:27 a.m. Suggest removal

Francis_James says...

Can anyone explain the arithmetic in the vaccination dashboard works?
48,434 people have one vaccination, 13,749 people have two vaccinations, so the total number f vaccinations is 75,932, but the dashboard says only 62,183 because MOH seems to confuse vaccinations with "fully" vaccinated people.

Francis_James says...

With all due respect to the MOH, something seems amiss. Is it the newspaper headline? We are far from being on the right track with the current phase of the pandemic. Deaths are increasing, the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients is increasing as are the number of active cases. The number of active cases has more than doubled in the last month. Projections indicate that the numbers of new cases are not being constrained by current protocol enforcement. The narrative does not reflect our current reality which should be one of concern, not optimism; 23 people have died of Covid-19 this year. With an uptake of the vaccine of less than 30% we do not look like being on track to curb this outbreak by vaccination alone.

Francis_James says...

If the editor paid attention to the figures it would be seen that Grand Bahama has a fourth wave and New Providence already has a third wave.

Francis_James says...

Your report needs correction. The underlying trends of infections are upwards, the 7-day, 15-day and 29-day. The new wave of cases in Grand Bahama and New Providence do not look good. The "science" would suggest caution.

Francis_James says...

If the government actually approved Covid-19 vaccines, the private sector could import them and these vaccinations would just become part of their healthcare services. If people wish to pay for a vaccination, why stop them from getting vaccinated now? Why not use all the healthcare facilities we have to help in the vaccination process?

On Vaccine rollout will be major challenge

Posted 28 January 2021, 10:28 a.m. Suggest removal

Francis_James says...

It is easy to focus on just one number, namely "cases". Social distancing etc. is just designed to slow down the spread of the virus. With respect to this, we should notice that the percentage of cases which are active is declining, as in the number of cases hospitalized. These are helpful indicators to appreciate the burden on the health system. Also, the percentage of reported tests returning positive is declining, as the number of tests is increasing. Wider testing, will find more cases, cases who can be quarantined to help reduce the spread of the virus. The "new normal" should reflect our willingness live with and manage the virus.

Living with the virus is about managing risk. Last year there was a "normal", no virus here and no virus in Florida (say). That was the "old" equilibrium. We travelled. Now the virus is here and in Florida. This is a "new" equilibrium. If the risks of catching the virus are similar in both places why are we worried about travel?

Francis_James says...

It is useful to remind ourselves of the purpose of the lockdowns, it is to ensure that when people get Covid-19 and need a bed in hospital one is available. The lockdowns are not designed to stop us catching the virus, only to slow its spread. Relatively few people require a hospital bed. Yesterday, only 6 of the 43 active cases (14%) needed a bed, and we have 41 “Covid” beds. So, there is plenty of capacity in the system. Based on these figures, we might say we could have about 290 active cases before we run out of Covid beds. Our last Covid-19 related death was on the 23rd April. Are these metrics not sufficient for us to learn to live with Covid-19, rather than trying to hide from it?

Francis_James says...

We talk of a "new normal", but some fail to appreciate that Covid-19 is now part of our "new normal". Examination of the MOH data indicates that the worst of our outbreak occurred four weeks ago, yet from what we saw in Grand Bahama and last week in Bimini, officials seem to require NO new cases to be the indicator "success" of containing the virus. The virus can only be contained (not eliminated) by tracing and testing, but with limited testing capacity the sledge hammer of lockdowns seems to be the preferred option. It seems unlikely that Covid-19 will not go away, maybe ever.