I would suggest that the more useful indicators are the number of cases occupying the 41 "Covid beds" and the number of active cases. In each instance, these numbers are going down and so indicate that there is capacity within the healthcare system to cope with additional, really sick people who require hospital treatment. Further, and what is the key indicator, is that there have been no new Covid-19 related deaths since the 23rd April. As we begin to appreciate that we will need to live with Covid-19, we might agree that it is not the number of cases that matter, but having the capacity to treat those sick people who need hospital treatment so that they do not die. As we open the economy, we will require good tracing, testing and quarantining to protect those most at risk of requiring hospital treatment and indeed of dying by contracting Covid-19. The "lock down" is a blunt response and is unsustainable by society and the economy.

Typically we can expect 400 cases of 'flu per year and about 50 deaths.

The basis for the opening up is in the number of new COVID-19 infections.
In Week 1 we had 4 infections
In Week 2 that number increased by 75%
In Week 3 the number increased by 143% on the Week 2 number
In Week 4, the number increased by only 6% on the Week 3 number.
In Week 5, the number of new cases decreased by 33% on the Week 4 number.

This all points to the success of social distancing, and that we may have passed the worst. More cases will be detected, but that number can be expected to diminish.

So what happened to the 2017 Christmas mails? Will the 2018 Christmas cards get shredded too?