Continued...

Grand Bahama is much more interesting. I have heard a lot of good things about Michael Pintard (hearing anything good about an FNM MP these days is a good sign for them considering the unpopularity of this administration). He could potentially keep his seat. McAlpine's fence sitting may help him in Pineridge as well. The other three are unknown in my mind. East Grand Bahama would probably never vote for another party in a typical election (same thing with Central Grand Bahama), but this administration is so unpopular right now that the FNM could potentially be threatened in those seats (it will be a major wake up call for the party if they lose in those constituencies). There is still some time until the FNM's mandate expires, so we will see what happens until then.

I think the biggest question mark facing the next election will be how the vote will split. The DNA cost Ingraham reelection in 2012, and it is important to remember that the 35-4 FNM victory in 2017 was not representative of the people at all. The PLP were still able to pull in slightly less than 60,000 votes for all of the foolishness that the Christie administration did, they are only likely to gain more supporters after they hit rock bottom.

I would not be quick to put the FNM out of the race yet. Remember, all a party needs to win a seat in the FPTP system is a <b>plurality</b> of votes, not a majority. If the vote splits 45% FNM, 30% PLP, 25% other, the FNM will still take the seat by virtue of how our electoral system works. They are very much still in the game depending on the actions they take between now and the bell being rung + how the vote splits.

Hurricane Dorian, VAT, etc. would have been rendered unimportant if they would have been able to keep a lid on the COVID cases. Rowley faced dim electoral prospects in T&T as well prior to COVID, but his excellent handling of the situation enabled him to win another majority while only losing 1 seat. Holness was a different situation considering that the PNP has been wrought with internal fighting following their loss in 2016, and he would have probably been reelected prior to COVID anyways, however, the victories of the BC NDP, New Zealand Labour, and other incumbent parties that handled COVID well show that it is the most important issue for voters during this pandemic. Bahamian voters would have probably been able to forgive the FNM for prior errors if they could have kept a lid on the case count, especially considering the weak opposition that Minnis would have to run against.

Abaco and Grand Bahama are interesting situations to look at. I recently heard rumours that the Constituency Commission is looking to eliminate the North/South & Central seats for Abaco to be replaced with a single at-large seat for the entire island. It makes sense considering the population loss + the fact that the FNM would like to hedge their bets and risk losing one seat, compared to two. Assuming that they keep two seats for the island (and do not change the boundaries), I can see the PLP taking the North (North Abaco is the post-Ingraham era has always been competitive thanks to Dundas and Murphy Town, plus turnout may be low enough to have the PLP repeat the 2012 by-election), while the South & Central seat would be a pure tossup. The FNM is still hated by most in the South & Central for their poor Dorian response, but the PLP will need to run a conchy joe in that constituency if they want to be taken seriously. This may be the one time in the history of the earth that Gary Sawyer could win a race there lol. Another thing that will complicate the South & Central seat is the fact that it seems Roscoe Thompson will run as an independent. Roscoe put together a great campaign as the DNA candidate for the constituency in 2012, but he learned the same lesson that Edison Key did when he was with the PLP : the South and Central will vote for a dead dog if there is a torch next to the name, at least before Dorian. All in all, the FNM could potentially still win the seat IF the vote splits the right way.

With all due respect, I can only pray that you never get anywhere near a position of power in the Bahamas. The wealthy Bahamians are not going to stay here to pay any income tax when 1.) most are born in the US 2.) they can easily buy their green card and get out of town. In addition, what you are describing would involve a complete and total collapse of the real estate market that would put thousands out of work and bottom out the market in no time.

The EU/OECD only care about their own taxpayers that they have ran off through high taxation in their jurisdiction to fund decades of quasi-socialist money pit, poorly administrated national programs. They could not give two hoots about what a Bahamian company/individual does as long as it does not effect them in particular. The flaw in their thinking lies in the fact that they believe they can run their money back home; there will always be another jurisdiction willing to shelter their expats, whether they like that or not. If not the Bahamas, then Panama, so on and so forth. Instead of adjusting their tax rates/lowering their spending, they would much rather destroy the Bahamian offshore industry in a rather futile attempt to chase their money home.

Ironically, the same UBP government that is vilified and demonized by the vast majority of Bahamians did more/was going to do more for the over-the-hill area than any post-independence government. It is a common fact that prior to losing the 1967 general election, the UBP government had plans drawn to install water connections throughout the area. 50+ years later and so many parts of Nassau still relying on community pumps speaks volumes to how inefficient and corrupt post-majority rule governments have been. An utter crying shame to think that Bahamians still have to draw water from the community pump in 2020.

I like this sort of thinking. We are going to be the next Little Haiti in another 2-3 generations anyways, lets get a head start on the process!

You are telling me, someone who has lived in Canada, that I do not understand Canadian politics lol. Get a grip.

Trudeau has a minority government, but would more like than likely be able to secure a majority if an election were called today. I guess WE Charity and SNC Lavalin were just coincidences and not a part of a trend that is blatantly apparent with him by now. I guess the attempt to turn the creation a corruption investigation committee into a no-confidence motion is just alright and a wonderful ethical move to make. Force an election that we will probably win or let our grifting go unexposed. Sickening.

Are you sure that you know Canadian politics, because if you did you would know that Southern Ontario is pretty much a CPC (the federal PCs no longer exist either, the PCs only exist on a provincial level today, just another correction) stronghold. The same thing with interior BC. Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal are the only reasons that the Liberals will continue to rule Canada until the world ends. The people living in areas are far more worried that O'Toole may allow doctors to take a pledge not to perform abortions than their government stealing their tax money from under their noses. If you lived in those areas, you would understand. For 99% of those people, the CPC are the big evil bastards because the CBC said so. For the record, every move the CPC makes is compared to Donald Trump (despite the CPC being more left-wing than the Democratic Party of America). It is a tried and true LPC tradition to smear the CPC by painting them as the Canadian equivalent of the GOP, even though that is such a blatantly false, simplistic, and moronic comparison, yet the people living in those cities gulp it up like a hot cup of Tim Hortons.

- Solar energy is incredibly inefficient. Many of California's recent energy problems (I guess BPL services them as well) are a direct result of an overemphasis on renewable technology while getting rid of their nuclear plants. I think that we should explore the technology for sure, but only if it is going to be more cost efficient compared to non-renewable sources. Another thing to consider is how hurricane proof are these alternative sources of energy? We are always going to have to take that into consideration as well.

- The agricultural potential for the Bahamas is rather limited. Some crops can be grown here, but for the most part, the soil is rather shallow and large-scale commercial farming will require a lot of funding put into fertilizers to compensate. This is another thing old as the hills with us : Abaco once saw success with citrus farming, but a weird fungus killed the industry. On top of that, I doubt that many new employment opportunities will be created for Bahamians by farming. We all know that another political fire will be lit when the farms request work permits to import Haitian labourers (which will be like pouring gasoline on a fire when it comes to the shantytown issue).

- If we really want to reduce the cost of electricity (what seems to be an emphasis of your post), we are going to have to stop the favouritism and make everyone (hotels, politicians, etc.) pay their bills alike. We cannot tolerate any more Leslie Millers when it comes to BPL if we are going to expect payments to decrease. The fuel cost is one thing, but when the money collected from those of us who consistently pay our bills is only used to play catch up and compensate for those who don't pay, we are always going to have an issue.

- When it comes to the economy, FDI is the best thing we have in the short term. The potential for new industries is rather low. I think our best shot at developing a new industry lies in investing into the tech sector. In order for it to work, we need to 1.) fix our garbage infrastructure (ie. power grid, for starters) 2.) Maintain a low to no tax regime and tell the EU/OECD to piss off and 3.) Invest more into the educational sector to bring students up to par. Many companies are fleeing jurisdictions such as Ireland following the closure of the tax window, and we could market ourselves as an alternative destination. I think it is possible for us to develop a domestic industry as well, given our close proximity and cultural affinity with the US. Other than that, we will always be reliant on our sun, sand, and sea to make us money. The history books prove this over and over.

You lost me at white privilege. Do you honestly believe that every white person is born into life with a million dollars in their bank account? There are millions of impoverished white people on this earth, I want to see where their privilege is. The UBP itself was more of a cartel than a political party espousing racial ideology, and had no problem discriminating against their own kind if it fit the bill as well. There were plenty of poor white Bahamians that received no direct benefit from the UBP being in power. If we are really going to bring the American hogwash political discourse over here, lets talk about the millions of Irish, Italians, Polish, etc. who experienced discrimination during the 19th and early 20th centuries in the United States.

You are right in the fact that things will never get better until we make a concerted effort to improve them. No one is certainly coming to rescue us.

You should see what goes on in Canada, the Liberal Party is on the same scale as the PLP when it comes to blatant corruption. A few more years and Trudeau will be able to leave office with half of the Bank of Canada while ignorant Canadians keep voting him in to stick it to the "orange man" in America. Conservatives with their evil *checks notes* government accountability.

The FNM still has until May of 2022 on their mandate, they would be remiss to call an election in this current political climate. This isn't an Andrew Holness situation where they are going to cruise to an easy landslide victory, believe it or not, most Bahamians probably are fool enough to vote Davis in. The best thing that they can do now is control COVID as best as possible, finish as much as they can of what they proposed in their manifesto (ie. term limits, FOIA), and hope the vote splits the right way. They are going to lose seats no matter what, the only thing to determine is how many.

The FNM colossally screwed their chances of reelection when COVID got out of control following the reopening of the border in July. If the cases would have remained as low as what they were pre-opening, they would have had a perfect opportunity to emulate Holness and Rowley to win another 5 years. The subsequent lockdowns have wreaked twice as much damage on them politically than raising VAT or the issues with the Grand Lucaya deal. Most voters have very short term memories, especially in the Bahamas.

I am curious to know how anyone thinks that the Bahamas is going to survive without external sources of income. Would someone please care to tell me what natural resources we have that are going to enable us to ditch tourism as our primary source of revenue?

Yes, we do need to diversify; however, we need to recognize that there are limits on what we can do as a nation with little to no natural resources within our borders.