The economic (as you put it) bullshit, is not mine dear sir. It is from minds much greater than mine.

Let me again point out your faulty syllogism:

You are thinking in pure linear terms. Let me put some dimensions to your thinking and elucidate the true meaning of it when stripped of the simplistic linear thinking.

Your simplic assertions assume that because of the negative percentages in the data, that the overall economic growth from each storm would decrease the overall economy by that much. What in fact we are talking about here is effect.

So let us assume that the economic drivers show a growth trajectory of x percent. Along comes a storm. The EFFECT of the storm is that the economic growth is retarded by -14.9% for a 99 percentile storm and -3.6% for one standard deviation storm. Then the effect of the storm is a -3.6% decrease on the temporal outcome (the x percent) of the growth trajectory and not the final number of economic growth.

See, it's not a straight line that you assume it to be. It is a complex layer of abstraction. Your linear thinking is like an assumption that by looking down the throat of a person, you can see out of their ass.

Sigh. Obviously you did not read economics well. Quoting from The National Bureau of Economic Research -- The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones -- ( http://www.nber.org/papers/w20352 ) the graph of the results are shown in the pic -- evidenced based data shows that economic recovery after a cyclone ( aka hurricane -- never happens -- even after 20 years). The effect on the economy, and hence income per capita after one standard deviation storm is -3.4% after 20 years and for a 99 percentile storm, the effect on income per capita after 20 years is -14.9%.

This study was conducted at Columbia university, and the authors have concluded that empirical evidence suggests that recovery almost never happens - they have shown that to be the case after the analysis of 6,700 storms from 1952 - 2008.

Data puts the lie to your musings based on ignorance of subject matter and fact.

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What John outlines may be somewhat true in a diversified economy. However the economy of the Bahamas is quite monolithic. The billion dollars required to fix Matthew's damages will benefit the Florida building supply companies, the electrical equipment manufacturers, the petro-chemical roofing/paint manufacturers etc. None of these are Bahamian companies, unless Potcake Miller still has his paint company going.

The bottom line is that you are taking a billion out of the economy that could have gone to other things like debt repayment, etc. There is no economic offset or multiplier unless the economic stimulus creates permanent jobs in all of the areas touched by the rebuilding.

There are primary, secondary & tertiary industry offsets. The primary industries are those who cut the wood, drill for oil, and supply the resources. The secondary industries are those who add value to the resources by manufacturing. The tertiary industries either use the output of the primary & secondary industries. In the case of Matthew, it would be the carpenters & roofers etc. Their portion of the economic pie is small, compared to the cut taken by the primary & secondary economic segments.

So sadly, the economic effect of Matthew is unfortunately a drain on the Bahamian economy rather than a stimulus.

In a diversified economy, the economic stimulus is muted because the money that goes into repairs is taken away from being lent out to create new economic streams in business. However if the recovery money is used to re-build more efficient infrastructure, then there is a positive economic offset. It is a dicey gamble at best to count on catastrophe damage as an economic stimulus.

I have an interesting observation about Jeff Lloyd that may go to character. Sure, he projects a quiet competence, and he is a cultured man with none of the unintelligent Bahamian patois in his speech and deportment.

I went to St. Francis catholic cathedral for the funeral of a prominent Bahamian. Jeff Lloyd is a deacon in the catholic church. Near the end of the funeral mass, the Archbishop invited those who were catholic to come up and partake of communion.

I was flabbergasted when buddy who was sitting beside me (a sort of minor infamous Bahamian character), pushed by me and went up to receive the host. This joker was a noted atheist and well-known vulgarian. He marches up bold as brass to Jeff, who is administering communion, winks at him, and holds out his hand for the host. Jeff knows the vulgarian because he has appeared on his show and everyone knows that he is at worst, a lecher, philanderer and business cheat and at best, a gross scallywag. Jeff smiles and hands him a host.

Now I een a catholic, but I know the rules. No partaking of catholic communion unless you are a professed papist. I simply couldn't believe Jeff would flout the rules of his faith, and that small incident shook my faith in Jeff. Doesn't anyone adhere to moral, ethical, and proscribed standards, rubrics, vows and laws anymore? If you take a vow to be a deacon of the church, you have to obey the rules. Like Diogenes of Sinope, is there not one honest man in the city who obeys the strictures and canons of the faith that he professes?

Sheeprunner has it right. I am in awe of the bullshit flying around this. What Crisco Butt and the courts and the two Winders (Ray & Ian) have done, is hand over the entire package to the Chinese government represented by the bank.

Here is what is happening. The bank creates the SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle -- or a paper company that it owns). The paper company SPV has no business, no revenue streams -- nada. But it has the money from its parent, who is owed the money, to bid and buy the resort from the guardianship of bankruptcy trustee Ray Winder. And the judge (Ian Winder -- same names are a complete coincidence of cronyism) says disingenuously that this is not self dealing.

So all of the other buyers made crap bids, but the SPV made a good offer, and the SPV is technically the bank run by the Chinese government that is owed the money from its claim. And because the amount is below what is owed, there is no money for Izmirlian. He is outta Luck. So the SPV writes a cheque to its parent, who will pay the SPV cheque, and then rips it up. And voila, the Chinese own Baha Mar, lock, stock and barrel.

The telling line is that the sale price happens to be exactly what is owed to the bank. So the banks gets the bad loan off its books, paid with money from its own pocket, because now the SPV owns Baha Mar and "paid" off the loan with money from its owner. The only difference is that this exercise transfers all of Baha Mar to the Chinese government represented by the bank.

It's no wonder that the sale price exceeds the appraised value, because no money is actually changing hands in reality.

Here is the rub. The two stage process is that the hotel(s) will be sold later. I was talking to my tourism/hotel consultant out of Miami and he tells me that not a single legitimate hotel chain would want to occupy the dregs of Baha Mar due to liability and balance sheet depreciation issues. For example, the Chinese have been known to use wallboard that outgassed formaldehyde. That would open the chain to lawsuits from guests occupying those rooms. Also, because of shoddy workmanship, the hotel would require repairs and painting way beyond the normal material lifecycle of quality products. Literally the walls would chip and peel months after it opened, requiring expensive repairs. Running a hotel in a tourism-depressed venue is difficult enough without these challenges, and the militant unions. The Baha Mar well is poisoned, and opening it will be a difficult proposition.

But in the meantime, the tricks and gyrations that these buffoons go through to pass ownership of Baha Mar to the Chinese would be laughable if it weren't so damn treasonous -- giving our patrimony away to rogue state that has no regard for us.

Hmmm special purpose vehicle? I smell Bahamian treasury money here. It is Prime Minister Crisco Butt's new favourite toy -- the SPV for shoveling taxpayer cash to cronies anonomously.

Attention Wayne Munroe you dummy, Izmirlian wanted to ditch CCA because of shoddy workmanship and CCA lying about opening dates. That is the answer to your inane question. Your intellect is on par with your ethics.

The answer to your question Jeff, is YES, all court proceedings and decisions by law are public unless the court seals the records for a compelling reason. It is the foundation of a fair legal system.

Most legalists in the Bahamas would privately tell you that the attorney general is over her head and corrupt. She is too intensely partisan to be of any service to the country.

The shell company is dead !!! The beneficial ownership is in question. The registry is not valid. The numbers on the plane is a fraud. Something strange is going on. This ownership of this plane is not traceable according to public records and that is against the law.

This is intriguing -- just because, I ran the tail number thru the FAA database:

Serial Number UB72 Status Valid
Manufacturer Name BEECH Certificate Issue Date 05/21/2013
Model 1900C Expiration Date 05/31/2019
Type Aircraft Fixed Wing Multi-Engine Type Engine Turbo-prop
Registered Owner
Name southern air charter co ltd
Street 3115 kyle ave ste b1
City springdale State marylandzip Code 20774-2567
Country united states

So I looked at the address of registry. The Google StreetView pic is attached. It was a very modest house belonging to Alpha A. Gibbs.

So I ran the company in the companies database:
Company Name southern air charter company ltd.
Company No d07955644
Status forfeited
Good Standing No
Business Code Ordinary Business - Stock
Date of Formation 05/14/2004
State of Formation MD
Resident Agent alpha a. gibbs
3115 kyle avenue
springdale, md 20774

The company is not valid. I checked to see if Alpha Gibbs was still residing there at that address and the answer is yes:
alecia gibbs 3115 kyle ave
alpha gibbs 3115 kyle ave
autumn gibbs 3115 kyle ave
jolenta gibbs 3115 kyle ave

So the real question is why is this aircraft registered in America to a defunct company -- not registered in the Bahamas, and probably not paying insurance ?????? if the company is defunct. Makes you wonder about beneficial ownership. WTF is going on?

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