3.) I agree the last election was very much different than any other but honestly I don't see where the FNM is going to drive much higher turnout and the PLP had a low turnout as well (falling short of their gross 2012 totals) and will only lose votes by nature of being incumbent. That said that's not what I'm mainly referring to by things being different. Truth is outside of brief exceptions like the DNA and the BDP third parties have not really been a serious thing in our politics. At this time I believe Coalition is going to stick around for the foreseeable future because Lincoln is a lot smarter than people give him credit for and has managed to carve out a political niche for himself focusing on topics like immigration and sovereign wealth funds that Bahamian establishment politicians are unable or unwilling to adequately address. What is mainly holding him back is the FPTP system that is not representative. Rome wasn't built in a day, parties like the AfD and Reform are rising to political prominence from the fringes (Reform is really a child of UKIP to an extent) and the younger generations don't have any allegiance to the PLP FNM system like the older ones did. Eventually a third party will lead because people are politically dissatisfied and looking for other opportunities. It's only a matter of when.

4.) The Elizabeth by election was an anomaly itself because of the third party factor that decisively affected the result. Look Bahamian politics is usually somewhat predictable (like we all know certain seats are loyal PLP or FNM - S Abaco for instance never voted for the PLP prior to 21), it's just a matter of the swing seats in Nassau and a few of the FI ones deciding who wins. Introducing a consistent established third party into the calculus completely blows this out of the water. A lot of things are now up in the air and even seats that were safe may now be in reach for the other party (the DNA cost Ingraham a few in 2012 and Coalition cost the FNM a few in 21). As long as there is a third party draining 5-20% of the vote away from establishment candidates its going to be much harder to make accurate predictions going forward.

Honestly I'll be truthful and say I'm not a fan of the PLP but I do enjoy this discussion despite the partisan difference because there is such a vacuum of high quality political analysis in this country. It's refreshing to be able to actually discuss these things with someone who understands politics beyond the very basics.

I'm sorry for the delayed response, have been very busy lately.

That said to address your points:

1.) I think it's very premature to be certain about who Coalition will pull more from considering that they haven't run under a PLP incumbent government in a general yet. The Coalitions base so far does seem to pull from the dejected Minnis independents that voted FNM in 2017 (90k votes in 2017 is way higher than average for the FNM that grossed in the 60ks in both 07 and 12) but functionally they also exist as a protest party as well and we haven't had a chance to evaluate how many people they can pull from dissatisfied PLP voters to establish a real floor for what they can expect to achieve electorally every year. Not necessarily disagreeing with you just saying it's too early to be certain.

2.) Regarding candidate quality I can concede that the PLP might have some marginally better names but be real for a second (I know you are a loyal PLP), Miller should not have even be given the PLP standard and other candidates like Kirk (yes he was cleared by the court and I don't hold that against him but the whole PM of Abaco thing was just incredibly horrible optics while all that was going on) have just proven to have not worked out. The PLP candidate selection is just as flawed as the FNMs. Regarding the Coalition I think you are being too dismissive. Operating as a serious third party in this countries political scene is hell and you're not going to be able to pull big names easily because third parties usually do not have the funding and political background to succeed. Despite this both Lincoln and Cay managed to pull over 20% in their seats, and others had respectable results as well. The playing field and recruitment opportunities between the big 2 and third parties is not even at all and will not be until we dump FPTP in favour of a more representative system but that is a conversation too politically mature for the vast majority of Bahamians involved in politics.

Stories like these are why I always cringe when I hear people say there's no talent in our nation. We have so many bright young people ready to hustle and try make something of themselves but in so many cases never want to give them an opportunity to shine in favour of foreigners or some politically connected friends and lovers and then wonder why all of our young are trying to leave the country. Hopefully the business continues to grow for her.

Honestly at first I was furious about this and thought these people should have been imprisoned but after hearing a few different perspectives on this I'm convinced a lot of people went there in ignorance of how salvage/wreck law really works. It would be prudent not to charge these people on the condition that they return the goods and use this moment as teaching lesson for how maritime law works in cases like this.

Also the American media is wrong for slandering these people as pirates. Yes they were wrong for what they did but the vessel was abandoned, at no point did they hijack or otherwise forcefully take over the vessel. As usual facts don't matter to a lot of people though.

Honestly I think people trying to box this by-election into the historical pattern are failing to account for the fact that Bahamian elections are fundamentally different now.

1.) Coalition is sticking around and it's up in the air who they are going to pull more votes from. The 3rd party dynamic is going to be a lasting (and growing) factor going forward in Bahamian elections as long as the two main parties continue to promote lacklustre candidates and leadership.

2.) Last general election had the lowest turnout ever and I doubt it will improve much if at all in the next one. Voter apathy is very high and no telling which of the main parties is more politically apathetic at this point.

Besides the seat is a swing seat and the incumbent representation was lacklustre. I would not be surprised if the FNM wins at and neither would I be surprised if the PLP wins it. Tbh I wouldn't really be surprised if Coalition wins it either. Things are just different now and the old 2 party high turnout calculus isn't going to apply going forward. Honestly there are some parallels with the 2010 Elizabeth by-election and we all saw how that one turned out. Wouldn't be surprised at a repeat of that.

Is there going to be a digital copy available?

Historically valuable but niche works like these should be digitized considering the usually limited availability. It's priceless knowledge and should always be available for future generations long after the hard covers have disappeared or faded away.

> The Tribune understands that deportation flights from the United States carrying Caribbean nationals arrive in New Providence roughly every other week, often with little notice.

This needs to be addressed if it's really happening. If Bahamians are doing foolishness in the US fine kick them out but it's not our problem or responsibility to deal with any other "Caribbean nationals". Ship the "Caribbean nationals" to the places they belong, don't expect us to do your job for you.

Why move on right before a general election? Ingraham had his chances, Minnis had his chances, and it's only fair Pintard has his chance. He gets blown out fine move on and replace him as leader but it makes zero sense for the FNM to make any big changes in leadership at the moment. Besides its not like the FNM is filled to the brim with viable replacements anyways.

> no governing party has ever lost a by-election

This is inaccurate, the FNM lost the 2010 Elizabeth by-election albeit it was by a razor thin contested margin with a PLP incumbent.

Real. None of these gubermints since Ingraham have given a shit about Abaco and it really shows. I have thought several times about taking pictures of the literal craters on our highway and sending them into the Tribune. It is disgusting and insulting that we have to put up with this BS despite how much revenue we generate. The thing is none of us are asking for the gubermint to do anything but their jobs; Abaco has clawed its way out of the aftermath of Dorian to become even bigger than before with minimal gubermint assistance, and its like these gubermints can't even meet us halfway and provide the most basic of services they are responsible for. I am sick of potholes (craters) damaging my (and other people's) vehicles, hours long power outages every summer, BPHell burning up my appliances while paying ludicrous bills, lack of necessary amount of police, out of control immigration issues, etc. Conians try hard to pull our weight in this country and its just like the gubermint doesn't give a rats ass about us other than when it comes time to collect tax money to fund whatever stupid BS scheme they are concocting at that moment.

Any Conian what votes for the FNM or PHellP is either a masochist or a too low IQ to even be voting. CoI or independence are honestly our only two hopes of things ever improving on this island.