It's very possible Cay wins in North Abaco. PLP support on Abaco is cratered and the FNMs are not happy with how the candidate selection process went. Cay pulled over 20% of the vote last time and will likely net more this go around. Cay and Lincoln are the two most likely Coalition candidates to win in the next general.

So it turned out basically the way I thought it would. Low turnout, Coalition growing in strength and spoiling the result for one of the two parties. Granted I thought the FNM could've pulled off the unlikely upset but I'm not surprised the PLP retained the seat considering it is always difficult to pull off a by election victory in opposition.

That said I think it's clear most Bahamians are disgusted with the two party process. The next election will most likely be another low turnout match of who can lose the least. Coalition is very obviously gaining strength and I will be bold enough to predict that they will replace the weaker of the two parties once the boomers still living in the era of Pindling and the UBP die off in another few cycles. Playing the political game as a third party in this country is hell and Lincoln deserves a lot of credit for building something that is not only sticking around but managing to grow. Rome wasn't built in a day and political success doesn't come overnight, all across the world we are seeing parties formerly on the fringe get ushered into government so perseverance is key. The Coalitions time will come.

At least yall road getting patched. Abaco's highway gets worse with every day and nothing is done to fix it. PLP politicians them must own shares in car repair shops or something given how slow they are to fix this issue.

One of the main reasons I bring up the ship being abandoned is that American media is framing this as an act of piracy and calling these people pirates, not to justify the act. Some down the shore folks throwing cheeto puffs and tires out of a container on an abandoned ship is not piracy. Yes a massive amount of stupidity and ignorance was behind this but calling this piracy is just sensationalizing this story far past what actually happened.

Oh yeah there definitely was loads of looting just for the sake of taking things post Dorian but some of it was necessary for survival. Again it was a situation where things like banks shops whatever just didn't exist right away and if it was truly necessary you had to do it. In a real SHTF situation like that survival is the number one priority.

No I didn't feel attacked or whatever I just think some of these people definitely went there out of ignorance thinking they had some type of law covering them because the ship was abandoned. Thing what a lot of people don't know is even if a ship has been wrecked or abandoned for years you can't just go taking things off of it, there is a lot of public misconceptions about that. All of that is why I just said I think they should be given a chance to do the right thing before prosecuting them.

The only thing I will "defend" these people on is the fact that American media is labeling them as pirates which is just sensationalism. Piracy is what exists near the Horn or the Red Sea with Somalians or Houthis storming a ship with firearms to hijack it. This was nowhere near that level of criminality and it's just silly to pretend it us and call these people "pirates".

Look you are misunderstanding me, I'm not defending these people I'm just saying some of them may have done what they did not completely understanding they were in the wrong. All I'm saying is they should have a chance to return the goods and not be prosecuted if they do. Truth is even if this ship was completely wrecked and going to sink they didn't have a right to just go and do that and I think that is something that needs to be stressed. Not a lot of people are aware of maritime law.

Yes, the ship was abandoned. Nobody was on it. It doesn't make it right but it's not like they went there with firearms and held the crew hostage. Labeling them as pirates is misrepresenting the situation.

Regarding your comment on Abaco post Dorian I hate to tell you but I know people that were told by law enforcement to just go ahead and take whatever they needed to survive food gas or whatever because the whole area was a massive disaster zone and there was nothing else they could do. Yes lots of people looted goods after Dorian and should be punished for that but truth is you might've had to puncture someones tank for gas or steal food from a store because there was no where else to get these things right away. Nassau people shouldn't talk about Dorian because you guys have never experienced anything like that and in a SHTF situation you're going to have to do the same thing to survive.

3.) I agree the last election was very much different than any other but honestly I don't see where the FNM is going to drive much higher turnout and the PLP had a low turnout as well (falling short of their gross 2012 totals) and will only lose votes by nature of being incumbent. That said that's not what I'm mainly referring to by things being different. Truth is outside of brief exceptions like the DNA and the BDP third parties have not really been a serious thing in our politics. At this time I believe Coalition is going to stick around for the foreseeable future because Lincoln is a lot smarter than people give him credit for and has managed to carve out a political niche for himself focusing on topics like immigration and sovereign wealth funds that Bahamian establishment politicians are unable or unwilling to adequately address. What is mainly holding him back is the FPTP system that is not representative. Rome wasn't built in a day, parties like the AfD and Reform are rising to political prominence from the fringes (Reform is really a child of UKIP to an extent) and the younger generations don't have any allegiance to the PLP FNM system like the older ones did. Eventually a third party will lead because people are politically dissatisfied and looking for other opportunities. It's only a matter of when.

4.) The Elizabeth by election was an anomaly itself because of the third party factor that decisively affected the result. Look Bahamian politics is usually somewhat predictable (like we all know certain seats are loyal PLP or FNM - S Abaco for instance never voted for the PLP prior to 21), it's just a matter of the swing seats in Nassau and a few of the FI ones deciding who wins. Introducing a consistent established third party into the calculus completely blows this out of the water. A lot of things are now up in the air and even seats that were safe may now be in reach for the other party (the DNA cost Ingraham a few in 2012 and Coalition cost the FNM a few in 21). As long as there is a third party draining 5-20% of the vote away from establishment candidates its going to be much harder to make accurate predictions going forward.

Honestly I'll be truthful and say I'm not a fan of the PLP but I do enjoy this discussion despite the partisan difference because there is such a vacuum of high quality political analysis in this country. It's refreshing to be able to actually discuss these things with someone who understands politics beyond the very basics.

I'm sorry for the delayed response, have been very busy lately.

That said to address your points:

1.) I think it's very premature to be certain about who Coalition will pull more from considering that they haven't run under a PLP incumbent government in a general yet. The Coalitions base so far does seem to pull from the dejected Minnis independents that voted FNM in 2017 (90k votes in 2017 is way higher than average for the FNM that grossed in the 60ks in both 07 and 12) but functionally they also exist as a protest party as well and we haven't had a chance to evaluate how many people they can pull from dissatisfied PLP voters to establish a real floor for what they can expect to achieve electorally every year. Not necessarily disagreeing with you just saying it's too early to be certain.

2.) Regarding candidate quality I can concede that the PLP might have some marginally better names but be real for a second (I know you are a loyal PLP), Miller should not have even be given the PLP standard and other candidates like Kirk (yes he was cleared by the court and I don't hold that against him but the whole PM of Abaco thing was just incredibly horrible optics while all that was going on) have just proven to have not worked out. The PLP candidate selection is just as flawed as the FNMs. Regarding the Coalition I think you are being too dismissive. Operating as a serious third party in this countries political scene is hell and you're not going to be able to pull big names easily because third parties usually do not have the funding and political background to succeed. Despite this both Lincoln and Cay managed to pull over 20% in their seats, and others had respectable results as well. The playing field and recruitment opportunities between the big 2 and third parties is not even at all and will not be until we dump FPTP in favour of a more representative system but that is a conversation too politically mature for the vast majority of Bahamians involved in politics.

Stories like these are why I always cringe when I hear people say there's no talent in our nation. We have so many bright young people ready to hustle and try make something of themselves but in so many cases never want to give them an opportunity to shine in favour of foreigners or some politically connected friends and lovers and then wonder why all of our young are trying to leave the country. Hopefully the business continues to grow for her.

Honestly at first I was furious about this and thought these people should have been imprisoned but after hearing a few different perspectives on this I'm convinced a lot of people went there in ignorance of how salvage/wreck law really works. It would be prudent not to charge these people on the condition that they return the goods and use this moment as teaching lesson for how maritime law works in cases like this.

Also the American media is wrong for slandering these people as pirates. Yes they were wrong for what they did but the vessel was abandoned, at no point did they hijack or otherwise forcefully take over the vessel. As usual facts don't matter to a lot of people though.