Yes I did. Please look at the wording more closely. I’m not talking about recovery rates or transmission rates. I ‘m talking about overall mortality. Death. The great beyond. Etc. That is what we’re trying to do here protect people from dying and according to this article border closures, full lockdown and increase testing extraordinarily is not associated with reduced covid-19 mortality all though they did limit the rate of transmission. Who gets covid matters - you can have High transmission rates and low death if the average age of infection is low. I think revelation here is that yes you can flatten the curve but basically once the Genie is out of the lamp there is not a lot you can do to protect people from death. This virus tends toward natural mortality so as the year goes the cumulative death falls within annual norms, adjusted for population growth and excess death because of lockdown collateral damage becomes more apparent and diverges from COVID19 deaths as well as seasonal mortality expectations.
I m afraid you have not been following the numbers that were released. The average test per day have been about 22. The average of infection is in the 30s...On Sunday they completed over 1000 supposedly. Prior to Sunday there were around 2.6k tests by Monday 3.k test were completed. Between March and June only 2k were down and yet in the space of day the did 1000. Clearly you would expect at least a similar ratio to be confirmed. Prior to Sunday they by in large testing sick people or those they came in contact with, Sunday marks the first wide spread testing effort. Case increase as you have admitted should be expected from such actions. Infection did not just magically double. You have to acknowledge that testing increased by a factor of 50. Remember 30% -70% of cases or asymptomatic. So we are only ever looking at the tip of the iceberg. According to The CDC’s best guess is that 99.8% will survive infection...obviously there are different shades of survival but that means it is highly promising that we are not In fact facing the bubonic plague as the Pm would suggested by his need obliterate the economy to save our sorry souls...
If only we lived in a country of made up of islands where you can limit the spread in an area by stopping flights and movement on those island and have 80%- 90% of the rest country function with the proper protocols in place...instead of tarnishing the brand of nation, pissing off our largest clients, potentially dooming 100s of families to economic ruin, possibly exposing family’s and more pointedly infants and children to hunger and potentially threatening dozens if not 100s of people seeking medical procedures and diagnostic exams to prevent excessive death from latent diseases and conditions over the next year or so...If only...
panic panic panic - test test test - oh no we found more cases - panic panic panic - quick test test test - oh no we found more cases - panic panic panic.... This is cycle of doom that we are now caught in...Over 1000 tests conducted between Sunday and Monday 70 cases in three days...scary stuff but not so much when keep in mind that they literally did 100 Times more tests in one day then they did in 2 months...I’m sorry but simple logic dictates they are likely to find at least the same ratio of cases...Test Positivity rate currently 5.8% lower than 2 months ago at the “peak”...Every body calm down... Who” get covid matters.... average age in this batch is 36. If it’s not old or sick persons, the house ain’t on fire (yet)... We should be thinking about the people wondering how they are going to get food on the table in a month from now when hurricane season is in full swing...July and August was the last chance for people to get money under the mattress before things really dry up and Minnis just robbed dem...
So this little publication called the lancet dropped this doozy.... Guess what? - “rapid border closures, full lockdowns and widespread testing were not associated with reduced COVID-19 mortality.” Hmmmm... Hey Minnis you have anything to say???
You really don’t get it...sigh...New Zealand had some the strictest lockdowns but isn’t dependent on 1000x their population entering the country to spend money, South Korea barely lockdown but had incredible testing, Canada locked down but could afford to give everybody that is unemployed $2k per month and is now broke and realizing they can’t keep it up, Georgia had one of the shortest lockdowns in the US and was completely fine in spite doom and gloom predictions of resurgence but did not close their border to the rest of states. none of the examples u provide is a suitable model for the bahamas!! The bottoms line is that, as this article suggests, there must be balanced approach to the crisis given the unique geographical reality of our country. In stead poor Minnis is now Caught up in the cycle of doom that destabilized the usa - “test test test” - “heaps of cases oh no!!” - “panic panic panic” - so let’s “test test test” - “oh no heaps of cases” - “panic panic panic”...so let’s...and so forth.. Rather than looking at the “who” is getting infected. In the first few weeks of the pandemic in the Bahamas average of age those infected was much higher in 50s and 60s and 70s and the Mortality rate was horrific...but now the average age of infected persons has decrease and so has the CFR predictably. The ‘Who’ gets COVID matters - basically if you ‘re likely to die within a year or two or three because you’re old or have a underlying disease than the chances of death are high (protect yourself at all costs), if you’re youngish but have diabetes or something else going on but expecting another 20+ years of life (guess what wear a mask, wash your hands, stay out crowded places) if you’re healthy and no issues be polite - wear mask and sanitize your hands. If you’re kid stay in school, don’t hug your grandparents (sadly) or strangers...The attached graph paints a telling story... Bottomline is locking down the country down does nothing but threaten those that are vulnerable for reasons other than their age or underlying health conditions. It’s cutting off your arm to spite your leg - whole body suffers.
Like who? What countries handled the pandemic well? Italy? France? Spain? Uk? The USA? People are dying - like who? There are 4 people in hospital...No one died of COVID19 in this country for months in spite of the cases we racked up since the last death...Doctor's hospital laid 44 people because of low patient activity - because they cancelled surgeries and other important procedures!! People with cancer and heart conditions are great risk now because of the back log... Wake up....Domestic violences cases are up. There 10s of thousand of people are collecting food from food banks on a government program that will run out in the next few weeks. There are 100s of infants that not getting sufficient nutrition because of increase unemployment and reliance on inconsistent and dwindling NIB support. We need more Bahamian entrepreneurs to stand up, do their best to survive this otherwise the impact will damage countless others... Only through a balanced approach can this be achieved. Hurricane season approaching the country's problems will only get greater. You know what is not temporary the permeant closure of 100s of small business and the families they support. Meanwhile 9 people died...where was the government response when gun death was in it's 80s and 90s each year...Did they lock Nassau down - I sure didn't notice..?
The point is with increased testing you do find more cases but it drives the test positivity rate down if you don t have increase in transmission. Bahamas now has a test positivity rate of 4.5% lowest it has ever been. The WHO recommends under 5% TPR to open economies...this Minnis picking& choosing to justify his decisions. It’s not based on reality.
whogothere says...
Amen
On ALICIA WALLACE: Playing the blame game when everyone knew what was likely to happen
Posted 23 July 2020, 8:47 a.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
Yes I did. Please look at the wording more closely. I’m not talking about recovery rates or transmission rates. I ‘m talking about overall mortality. Death. The great beyond. Etc. That is what we’re trying to do here protect people from dying and according to this article border closures, full lockdown and increase testing extraordinarily is not associated with reduced covid-19 mortality all though they did limit the rate of transmission. Who gets covid matters - you can have High transmission rates and low death if the average age of infection is low. I think revelation here is that yes you can flatten the curve but basically once the Genie is out of the lamp there is not a lot you can do to protect people from death. This virus tends toward natural mortality so as the year goes the cumulative death falls within annual norms, adjusted for population growth and excess death because of lockdown collateral damage becomes more apparent and diverges from COVID19 deaths as well as seasonal mortality expectations.
On ALICIA WALLACE: Playing the blame game when everyone knew what was likely to happen
Posted 23 July 2020, 8:45 a.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
I m afraid you have not been following the numbers that were released. The average test per day have been about 22. The average of infection is in the 30s...On Sunday they completed over 1000 supposedly. Prior to Sunday there were around 2.6k tests by Monday 3.k test were completed. Between March and June only 2k were down and yet in the space of day the did 1000. Clearly you would expect at least a similar ratio to be confirmed. Prior to Sunday they by in large testing sick people or those they came in contact with, Sunday marks the first wide spread testing effort. Case increase as you have admitted should be expected from such actions. Infection did not just magically double. You have to acknowledge that testing increased by a factor of 50. Remember 30% -70% of cases or asymptomatic. So we are only ever looking at the tip of the iceberg. According to The CDC’s best guess is that 99.8% will survive infection...obviously there are different shades of survival but that means it is highly promising that we are not In fact facing the bubonic plague as the Pm would suggested by his need obliterate the economy to save our sorry souls...
On 25 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19
Posted 23 July 2020, 8:02 a.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
10 times more contagious or did we do 100x more tests on Sunday and are still interpreting the results?
On 25 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19
Posted 22 July 2020, 11:39 p.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
If only we lived in a country of made up of islands where you can limit the spread in an area by stopping flights and movement on those island and have 80%- 90% of the rest country function with the proper protocols in place...instead of tarnishing the brand of nation, pissing off our largest clients, potentially dooming 100s of families to economic ruin, possibly exposing family’s and more pointedly infants and children to hunger and potentially threatening dozens if not 100s of people seeking medical procedures and diagnostic exams to prevent excessive death from latent diseases and conditions over the next year or so...If only...
On 25 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19
Posted 22 July 2020, 11:37 p.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
panic panic panic - test test test - oh no we found more cases - panic panic panic - quick test test test - oh no we found more cases - panic panic panic.... This is cycle of doom that we are now caught in...Over 1000 tests conducted between Sunday and Monday 70 cases in three days...scary stuff but not so much when keep in mind that they literally did 100 Times more tests in one day then they did in 2 months...I’m sorry but simple logic dictates they are likely to find at least the same ratio of cases...Test Positivity rate currently 5.8% lower than 2 months ago at the “peak”...Every body calm down... Who” get covid matters.... average age in this batch is 36. If it’s not old or sick persons, the house ain’t on fire (yet)... We should be thinking about the people wondering how they are going to get food on the table in a month from now when hurricane season is in full swing...July and August was the last chance for people to get money under the mattress before things really dry up and Minnis just robbed dem...
On 25 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19
Posted 22 July 2020, 11:19 p.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
So this little publication called the lancet dropped this doozy.... Guess what? - “rapid border closures, full lockdowns and widespread testing were not associated with reduced COVID-19 mortality.” Hmmmm... Hey Minnis you have anything to say???
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ecli…
On ALICIA WALLACE: Playing the blame game when everyone knew what was likely to happen
Posted 22 July 2020, 10:33 p.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
You really don’t get it...sigh...New Zealand had some the strictest lockdowns but isn’t dependent on 1000x their population entering the country to spend money, South Korea barely lockdown but had incredible testing, Canada locked down but could afford to give everybody that is unemployed $2k per month and is now broke and realizing they can’t keep it up, Georgia had one of the shortest lockdowns in the US and was completely fine in spite doom and gloom predictions of resurgence but did not close their border to the rest of states. none of the examples u provide is a suitable model for the bahamas!! The bottoms line is that, as this article suggests, there must be balanced approach to the crisis given the unique geographical reality of our country. In stead poor Minnis is now Caught up in the cycle of doom that destabilized the usa - “test test test” - “heaps of cases oh no!!” - “panic panic panic” - so let’s “test test test” - “oh no heaps of cases” - “panic panic panic”...so let’s...and so forth.. Rather than looking at the “who” is getting infected. In the first few weeks of the pandemic in the Bahamas average of age those infected was much higher in 50s and 60s and 70s and the Mortality rate was horrific...but now the average age of infected persons has decrease and so has the CFR predictably. The ‘Who’ gets COVID matters - basically if you ‘re likely to die within a year or two or three because you’re old or have a underlying disease than the chances of death are high (protect yourself at all costs), if you’re youngish but have diabetes or something else going on but expecting another 20+ years of life (guess what wear a mask, wash your hands, stay out crowded places) if you’re healthy and no issues be polite - wear mask and sanitize your hands. If you’re kid stay in school, don’t hug your grandparents (sadly) or strangers...The attached graph paints a telling story... Bottomline is locking down the country down does nothing but threaten those that are vulnerable for reasons other than their age or underlying health conditions. It’s cutting off your arm to spite your leg - whole body suffers.
http://tribune242.com/users/photos/2020…
On Hotelier calls for 'calibrated' action on COVID surge
Posted 22 July 2020, 8:25 p.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
Like who? What countries handled the pandemic well? Italy? France? Spain? Uk? The USA? People are dying - like who? There are 4 people in hospital...No one died of COVID19 in this country for months in spite of the cases we racked up since the last death...Doctor's hospital laid 44 people because of low patient activity - because they cancelled surgeries and other important procedures!! People with cancer and heart conditions are great risk now because of the back log... Wake up....Domestic violences cases are up. There 10s of thousand of people are collecting food from food banks on a government program that will run out in the next few weeks. There are 100s of infants that not getting sufficient nutrition because of increase unemployment and reliance on inconsistent and dwindling NIB support. We need more Bahamian entrepreneurs to stand up, do their best to survive this otherwise the impact will damage countless others... Only through a balanced approach can this be achieved. Hurricane season approaching the country's problems will only get greater. You know what is not temporary the permeant closure of 100s of small business and the families they support. Meanwhile 9 people died...where was the government response when gun death was in it's 80s and 90s each year...Did they lock Nassau down - I sure didn't notice..?
On Hotelier calls for 'calibrated' action on COVID surge
Posted 21 July 2020, 7:25 p.m. Suggest removal
whogothere says...
The point is with increased testing you do find more cases but it drives the test positivity rate down if you don t have increase in transmission. Bahamas now has a test positivity rate of 4.5% lowest it has ever been. The WHO recommends under 5% TPR to open economies...this Minnis picking& choosing to justify his decisions. It’s not based on reality.
On COVID-19: 21 new cases, Deputy PM tests negative but will self quarantine
Posted 21 July 2020, 11:07 a.m. Suggest removal